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Technology Stocks : Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Bald Eagle who wrote (97187)	6/11/2003 5:05:39 PM
From: Joe NYC	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 275872

Conspiracy Theory: Cramer of The Street.com is pushing AMD as a short. If you look at the AMD newsstack on Yahoo, there are a number of negative stories with negative headings many with no relation to AMD in last couple of weeks. Coincidence? Joe

To: Bald Eagle who wrote (97187)	6/11/2003 5:53:54 PM
From: niceguy767	Respond to of 275872

Bald Eagle: I see the DOW and Nas showed healthy gains today no thanks to AMD and the other semis...About the only AMD positive today is that we didn't finish at the low for the day, given the relentless selling pressure, and that's not really all that positive when compared to the recovery by INTC today... As it is exceedingly difficult to delineate any AMD company specific weakness, I can only attribute AMD's continuing weakness to the bandwagon effect of those listening to the Cramers of the world, reinforced by the self-immolating AMD shareholders who assume something is wrong because the price has been driven down by the Cramer adherents...In this manner, AMD's declining price has been feeding on itself... Heck, BofA called for AMD q2 revnues of $680 to $715 million, which range, if accurate, would be on a par or better than average comparables (i.e INTC's) and, other things equal, would support an AMD participation in the recent and ongoing market rally...Tonight's close at $6.41 would strongly imply that investors view BofA's estimate as exceedingly optimistic and that AMD's q2 revenues are more likely to come in well below $680 million, say in the $500 to $600 million range... Mr. Rivet's acknowledgment that AMD guidance had not changed would seem to suggest that, even with the uncertaint associated with a heavily back-ended quarter, that AMD is comfortable with BofA's estimate... The point I'm getting at here is that unless AMD's q2 comes in around $550 million, there is no way that AMD is reasonably priced at $6.41...AMD's current price is also a function of the high degree of uncertainty around AMD's current Opteron progress...As it becomes apparent that AMD will come in within or above BofA's range and as the Opteron uncertainty is replaced by the certainty of Opteron's huge success, AMD will rapidly make up for lost ground...for the moment, though, AMD is Cramer-like characterized and saddled with the fuzzy perception of q2 revenues having fallen off a cliff and Opteron unable to open the starter's gate...both wildly improbable outcomes from this vantage point. Given AMD's product potential, AMD is waaaaay oversold and this feeding frenzy is about to end abruptly, probably today, given that the relatively large volume that changed hands resulted in AMD closing near its midpoint as opposed to its low for the day... Not sure just what event will turn AMD around but it may not require anything overly significant given the many converging positive Opteron and MirrorBit indicators that have been witnessed to date combined with the company's turnaround that has been in progress since q3 last year... I doubt we'll have to wait for q2's report of $725 million in revenues, above BofA's range, and an increase over q1 for AMD to recover lost terrain and oodles more to boot!!!