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To: BWAC who wrote (48606)	6/13/2003 12:57:48 PM
From: Carl Worth	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 53068

first of all, we know that the population has increased, as have the number of employable people, so like many things, just because a number is at a 20 year high doesn't mean that it is historically that high, is that number adjusted for population growth? certainly unemployment is not at a 20 year high...just another case of an eye catching headline where the actual data probably doesn't mean exactly what the headline implies...beyond that, employment is always a lagging indicator, as i said in a previous post, in 2000 we had 4% unemployment, did that portend good things to come in the 3 years since then? yes, i am confident that the current policies and tax cuts will help things to improve, but i also know that the economy goes in cycles, especially with regards to business spending, and tech spending in particular having some stimulus in place will help the economy to revive sooner, but it will revive on its own and really never has gotten that bad other than in the specific tech business....more and more technology systems are becoming outdated, even obsolete, especially in terms of performance in comparison to new products that are now available....i think that in the latter half of this year you will start to see spending pick up in these areas, and i think that is the reason the tech stocks have been doing better, the market always looks out six to nine months and apparently it likes what it sees in the future, notably for the first time in 3 years, in terms of finally breaking much if not all of the downtrend that tech has been in finally, yes i think the current administration has a clue, and i think that unlike bush sr., who let the democrats railroad him with a tax hike and ended up losing his reelection bid as a result, bush jr. is much more focused and has proven himself to be a very effective leader who sticks to what he believes in, even if he has to compromise on things such as the size of the tax cut in order to get something done....how many people would now look back two and a half years and say, i wish gore had been elected? probably not many, even with all that we have been through carl

To: BWAC who wrote (48606)	6/13/2003 2:19:16 PM
From: E.J. Neitz Jr	Respond to of 53068

"Workers collecting unemployment at 20 year high" ---continuing claims highest since 1983.......<<<<<<<<<< Sounds like a localized problem to me. From what I have seen unemployment is at a 9 year high averaged nationally. However, one could argue that during the 90's the unemployment rate averaged way below the very long term average. Carl makes a lot of good points. I do suspect the economy in the US is improving...slowly but still improving. With Bush wanting to get re-elected and with Greenspan "having night-sweats" over deflation, I suspect the economy will be pumping along fairly soon. Its after the election and after Greenspan (maybe maybe not ), do we need to be concerned. Of course a major negative geo-polictical event and all bets are off the table. Cheer up....!!! yes doom and some gloom..but the sun is out there.