Hi Hawkmoon; Re: "And let's face it, the US hasn't applied NEARLY the level of pressure that could be applied."
The US has a hell of a lot more economic impact on Cuba than it has on Iran, Syria or Jordan. Cuba is in our backyard, and that makes it both an easier twig to break, and one that is more important to us. But there it is, unbroken.
Re: "Being an urban guerrilla, takes a certain amount of patience and sophistication which I don't believe they currently possess. And they have no real place to hide in the countryside that they can use as a safe-haven. The Kurds are in the mountains. The Shiites are in the south. And Tikrit and Falujah are fairly remote and containable."
They hide in the cities, of course. Go read the US field manual on insurrections that I recently linked in.
Re: "Unlike what I perceive from your apparent support of despots, I don't think it's wrong to actively attempt to undermine and subvert non-elected regimes when they threaten our national interest. These governments have little legitimacy with their own people and normally sustain their power through repression and corruption."
Well, I just proved to you that I supported Bush. Does that make him a despot, LOL? No really, I don't think it's wrong to "actively attempt to undermine and subvert non-elected regimes when they threaten our national interest."
But Iraq didn't threaten us. And occupying the place puts us in the same position as the Israelis, as far as being terror targets. Attacking Iraq (and remaining in occupation of it), makes the war on terror impossible to prosecute. If you could eliminate terrorism by occupation of small chunks of territory, the Israelis would have solved their problems long ago. But what's worse, we have not, as of yet, been exposed to much in the way of Iraqi terror. Thet WTC attack was mostly by Saudis.
I don't have a philosophical problem with pulling down tyrants. In fact, I supported our actions against the Taliban most wholeheartedly. In fact, I predicted that our troops would be met with flowers in Kabul only days after the WTC attack.
Painting me with the rather broad brush of "support of despots" isn't realistic. Not immediately invading is not the same as "supporting", except maybe in the sad twisted universe where you live in. I know you'd like to think of me as just another Raymond Duray, but the fact is that I bet that I am more Republican than you are, if you count up the dollars I have donated to the party. And I'm not exactly a peacenik either. I just don't believe in getting involved in losing wars, especially when the entry is dishonorable. That so many right wing people are saying the same thing as me should make it clear to you.
Re: "And they have no real place to hide in the countryside that they can use as a safe-haven. The Kurds are in the mountains. The Shiites are in the south. And Tikrit and Falujah are fairly remote and containable."
Recently, our soldiers have been getting ambushed in Baghdad, which puts the lie to your fantasy about "no place to hide". For example:
DefenseLink.mil, June 11, 2003
The Department of Defense announced today that Pfc. Gavin L. Neighbor, 20, of Somerset, Ohio, was killed on June 10, in Baghdad, Iraq. Neighbor was off work from guard duty resting in a bus when a rocket propelled grenade round was fired from a nearby house.
defenselink.mil
Re: "And as you might recall, the US provided training and support to the Afghanis who defeated the Soviets, returning "the favor" for Soviet support of N. Vietnam."
Okay. Who provided "training and support" to the Palestinians, LOL? Look, they don't have to win by killing us all. All they have to do is make Iraq not worth our while. The same thing happened in Vietnam. If it was a matter of the survival of the nation, we could have kept troops in Vietnam. But now, there is near zero political support for bringing back the draft, much less leaving our dick in a meat grinder for 10 years.
Re: "But when our national security is at risk, then I really don't have much problem "threatening" whatever non-democratic regime we need to, in order to obtain our objectives."
The basic problem is that our objective in the war on terror can only be achieved by "winning hearts and minds". Iraq is already a great propaganda disaster, and with our losing aircraft, the propaganda war continues to suck.
Re: "Bilow, the US has permitted each Iraqi the ability to keep several AK-47s for self-protection. Why hasn't your scenario come to pass already?"
It takes 6 months to establish guerilla forces. Give it time. And for that matter, you seem to be ignoring the fact that most of the attacks on US forces are with AK-47s "fired from outside their effective range".
Re: "There will always be terrorism, just as there will always be crime and drunken drivers.. etc. But killing one person at a time isn't going to result in regime change."
Then why do the Israelis do it against Hamas, LOL? But as far as our body count, the problem is that there is no sign that Iraq is becoming pacified.
This planet is replete with the history of human rebellion against foreign occupiers. It generally doesn't start out as bloody rebellions, but begins instead with parades, marches, and speeches by religious or other leaders.
Sure the Shiites are making only peaceful demonstrations now, but don't expect that to continue. What are you going to do when fighting breaks out in Shiite areas, admit you're wrong, LOL? Of course not, you'll be supporting this fiasco until the last US troop retreats from it.
Re: "And as the US continues to restore Iraqi social institutions, it will be up to the Iraqi police and military to fight these insurgents."
Great idea! I wonder why the Israelis never got that one to work in 50 years, LOL.
I mean Jesus weeps, how naive can you get? Of course the Iraqi police and military will be riddled with people who hate Americans.
-- Carl |
