Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: KyrosL who wrote (35039)	6/15/2003 9:07:58 AM
From: TobagoJack	Respond to of 74559

Hi KyrosL, <<Greenspan can keep the game going ... The game will end only when Asia decides to float their currencies>> I am inclined to agree with what you posted. I am concerned about the eventual unbearable politics of it all in Euro-space and USD-space. I do not believe anyone in Asia anybody knows cares particularly about the health of their respective Central Bank portfolio as long as it is pegged to something, preferably appreciating relative to the portfolio of other Central Banks, but it doesn't really matter. The W3C and S2B around Asia care about their own respective personal portfolios, and their own respective jobs. So they may continue to diversify out of USD even as they earn USD, and leave it to their central bankers to continue supporting the USD. I am guessing that no Asian central bank will let their currency move up very much against the USD as long as Chinese Yuan is hard-pegged to USD and Japanese Yen is guided within the current trading band. For any Asian nation to break-off from the Japan-China currency train linked to the USD locomotive would be tantamount to economic suicide. If so, then we have this Last Man Standing game Message 19031675 progressing to some point when the stress breaks something somewhere. I am guessing that Asian equities may offer more gains for 2004 Message 19033175 but gad, it is hard and detailed work to play this game, certainly not as easy as in 2002/2003 when all we had to do was bet on distilled economic proxies such as currency of nations, wager on evidently beaten-down and flattened emerging markets (i.e. Argentina, Pakistan, Zimbabwe), gamble on observably volatile gold mining valuation, and speculate on obviously high yielding energy royalties. Chugs, Jay

To: KyrosL who wrote (35039)	6/15/2003 2:14:25 PM
From: EL KABONG!!!	Respond to of 74559

Hi KyrosL, China, Korea, Japan, are willing to send their goods over to the US in exchange for dollars at current exchange rates. The game continues because Asia cannot afford to adjust its own currencies and lose the USA export markets in the process. Should anything sudden happen to alter the delicate balancing act currently going on in Asian currencies, the drop off would be steep and severe. Job losses (in Asia) would almost guarantee civil and political unrest. So for now anyway, in order to preserve world peace, Asian countries will take the lesser of two evils and support the policies of Sir Alan Greenspan and the Frights of the FrownedFable. KJC

To: KyrosL who wrote (35039)	6/15/2003 2:37:59 PM
From: smolejv@gmx.net	Respond to of 74559

>>Asia is allowing the US to live way beyond its means by pegging their currencies to the dollar. << One can just as well say that US is allowing Asia to produce beyond its consumption by letting its current account go to 5% of GDP. Aka floating out some more TBs at negative rates - the green tide has nowhere else to go but back -. Is the problem possibly not the worldwide overcapacity? We used to joke about Cisco ("another 6 months and every one among 5+ B humans has his own router") We can say the same thing about cars (well, Chinese would probably love some, but they prefer to work ... so typically ... Japanese). Same for Nike shoes. Carrera sunglasses. XYZ cigarettes. Soft drinks - not drinking water! that's scarce, but it's difficult product to brand -. And at the same time everybody knocking US for getting even more obese as it already is. I said few years ago, that J6P should quit and go 24/7/365 consuming. See what I did (ng).