Hi EP, the problem <<With the dollar not down, we should see export s to Europe pick up with new products>>
... is that Japan, Europe, S.Korea, Taiwan, ... Thailand, and the US are all relocating factories and outsourcing to China and India, for old and new products. With the Yen/Yuan tagged to the USD, and the rest of the Asian currencies tagged to the same locomotive, Asia has just become vastly more competitive than E.Europe and LatAm only a few months ago. This new found competitiveness is on top of the fact that a country like Mexico lost 200k jobs to China during 2002.
The factories in China are owned by domestics and international parties, the profit, if any, belong to those parties, the tax income is for the host country, though lowered by transfer-pricing accounting and siphoned by the shareholders, the raw material are sourced domestically and imported from all over, keeping commodity prices stable to high, and the jobs are mostly domestic to the host country.
I do not believe this is a situation that will not cause something to break somewhere at some point.
Message 16212324
August 15th, 2001
Hi Maurice, <<roll back financial collapses!>> We have barely, and only just, held back the determined barbarian attacks by implementing the widely anticipated, least imaginative, most drastic, irresponsibly sustained, and fastest successive series of FED rate cuts ever in history. Still, the economy and the markets do not improve. In the meantime, the balance sheets of the nations, states, municipalities, corporations and individuals continue to deteriorate, with no end in sight and no bottom in view.
The final three-pronged attack is being prepared against the center with grim efficiency and murderous determination, aided by on-line credit application and off-rocker mentality that believe in the unbelievable. The defenders are conditioned to trust that (a) there will be a V-shaped recovery tomorrow, now that it is no longer yesterday; (b) trade deficit does not matter; (c) debt overload does no harm; and (d) Uncle Greenspankie and Sam will make matters OK.
The final attack could involve a shock troop attack softening down the Dollar or a serious Debt explosion deep within a nation, a corporation or a even a fund. The follow-on attacks will most likely involve the simultaneous Deflationary ‘cratering’ of the real estate funding bubble and the final bleeding of gushing hope from the quiescent population. The exact scenario does not even matter given the weakened state of the defending infrastructure and inadequate cash and FED rate ammunition supply.
Any brightening of hope in the interim is just a fatally toxic fantasy wrapped in shimmering hope tied with comforting propaganda presented on a platter of official deceit. Swallow the fantasy, financial suicide results.
Now, should the cataclysm be unobstructed, a new dawn may arrive sooner. We must lead the village idiots to the volcanic abyss of Inflation or the black hole of Deflation, to be sacrificed to the gods of work, thrift, family and savings. I am being optimistic and am of course assuming that all the market noise and propaganda smoke is not in fact camouflaging an inflection point connecting Silicon Glory to an as yet unknown “next abracadabra”, as the Rust Belt was once transformed into Silicon Glory but accompanied by much dying anguish and birthing pain.
I could be wrong about everything, even about the fact that I was ever born, and in my saner moments, I hope I am wrong. I hope tomorrow is not The Day, and that all speculators will have an opportunity to seek redemption and change their ways towards the gods of work, thrift, family, and knowledge, and forsake the idol of effortless wealth.
You know humans as well as I do, if not better, and so you can guess at the odds of J6P awakening from his dream walk in time, before he falls down the steps in Uncle Al’s temple. Hey, how about that, you do know … the myth and the fantasy ...
… <<Green$pan … having reduced the irrationally exuberant back to the daily grind … is boring but more productive than millions … guzzling champagne>>
Again, save yourself before it is too late. It is not too late now, because we are not even done with the prologue of the script yet. Your exuberance is lighting up this dark den of ours, as we patiently wait for the BBQ grill to reach a good searing temperature :0)
Chugs, Jay |
