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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Dayuhan who wrote (101877)6/18/2003 6:14:49 AM
From: frankw1900  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 281500
 
Hello Steven, you left an interesting series of posts here

To Sam (#101871)
What often strikes me is the degree to which this philosophy is combined with an absolutely stunning disregard for the rest of the world. I can?t remember a set of leaders that knew or cared to know less of other places and people. Knowledge seems have become something actively suspect, and the opinion of anybody who has actually bothered to study the history and culture of a foreign place is often regarded as inherently questionable.

Is this really true of the US admin? They had to re-figure their policy with regard to the ME after 9/11. It appears they are gradually detaching themselves from the dictators there. It was the absent minded support of unmodern regimes there which has led to the country's unpopularity among M Easterners, I think. The detachment from Hussein wasn't gradual but that happened over ten years ago and a low grade war with him contnued after he was driven from Kuwait. The US position with regard to Iraq was becoming increasingly unsatisfactory because it was being used as a demonstration by enemies of the US of its hard heartedness towards the suffering of Muslims and Arabs; it couldn't continue, and US abandonment of the violated truce it had negotiated and enforced for the UN wasn't possible. That would be a victory for the worst of the dictators which would be something far more important than mere loss of US prestige as it would lead to even bolder moves against the US by terrorists and the regimes supporting them.

If I understand the US administration's overall view of the ME, it is that the "stability" that was seen there is illusory and is brewing problems for both M Easterners and the US (and the West, generally). This appears so: M Easterners are falling behind the modern ROW in just about every category except youthful demographic increase and the continued lack of political headroom has led to very difficult problem of how to raise it now the kleptocratic regimes and extremist mullahs have taken up all the room.

Carl would argue that the US, and the modern world generally, shouldn't concern itself with these problems and let folk there work it out themselves. The US admin before 9/11 (which only through luck was not a much larger disaster) probably saw things the same way, but since then finds this position untenable. Continued "stability" in the ME wll eventually lead to further 9/11s.

So how can the US break down the unstable "stability" in which the lives of M Easterners continue to degenerate? It has chosen to remove the worst of the regimes and proposes to replace it with something better in which there will be more political headroom and economic growth and which will presumably serve as a model for the aspirations of other folk in the area and as a spur to reform by its rotten regimes. The US has certainly taken on a huge project but has it done so from a position of ignorance?

The US government has always relied on the expertise of people within and from business and academia. I think some parts of the administration could argue fairly that on the basis of 9/11 attacks and others, that the expertise it was listening to hasn't been all that satisfactory and it's time to question it and entertain other views. This isn't unreasonable under the circumstances, although I think some results are questionable, (such as the 'pre-emption policy').

The US couldn't get a large number of relatively important countries to go along with the Iraq project and, it's said, could not do so because it didn't argue its case well enough - it certainly made its case vigorously and at length. The objections raised included arguments that such a move will destabilize various other countries in the area, that war is in itself undesirable under any circumstances but self defence, that it would "break international law," that it would lead to an upsurge in terrorism and terrorist recruitment, and that it would further spread US hegemony. But the fact remains the losses to the US and world economy from 9/11 were gigantic, the loss of life and damge to US government could have been much greater (but for luck), and the festering (but "stable") situation in a number of ME countries continued, and continues, to breed further threats.

What the US did not get from those who objected was an alternative approach which might work to halt the downward political and social spiral in the ME. Leaving the regimes there untouched isn't going to do it.

It doesn't follow that just because you're right you can get agreement from others, especially if only your ox is gored and your response is likely to be truculent if damage to the ox is denigrated by those others. It makes no difference whether you are the Palestinian-Israelis or the Superpower, you still have to do something about it, even if others don't want you to or even give you significant help.

To Hawk (#101872)
The war is still not over, and there is a whole lot that can go wrong. We are actually still entering the most difficult phase, something many here don?t seem to realize.

For sure. Especially the operations around Tikrit.

To Nadine (#101873)
They just need to say that currently available information indicates that a large quantity of low-grade material was destroyed before the war, equipment was buried, smaller amounts of high-grade material may have been hidden in Iraq, retained with Saddam, or smuggled to Syria, and we are investigating those possibilities. That sounds possible and credible, and is hard for doubters to argue with, though at some point evidence would have to be produced.

I've stayed away from the where are the WMDs debate - not enough info - but my guess is an awful lot like what you say the Admistration needs to say. Although I suspect if they look under some lakes and water courses they could well find CW and BW stuff. There was a report during the war of finding CW chemicals in one of the rivers?.

I'm guessing perhaps Hussein was dopey enough to set up Potemkin WMDs for internal reasons, while shining the UN at the same time, but this stuff will eventually come out in the wash.

To Hawk (#101877)
The early Zionists were racists and imperialists. They could hardly have been anything else: you could have gone over late 19th century Europe with a fine-toothed comb and not found anyone who wasn?t. The bleeding heart liberals of the day were racists and imperialists; they just thought the lesser peoples should be cultivated, not exploited.

Cultivation is a vast improvement over expoitation but the cultivated don't always appreciate it. Bagehot remarked that the Englishman said he just wanted to improve things while the Indian said the Englishman wanted to take away his religion. That's not exact but pretty close.

I doubt some early Zionists were cultivators.

Things went awry in Israel-Palestine after '67. The Israelis made some very poor choices then. But that's hindsite. Nowadays there's Hamas and all, and things look a hell of a sight more difficult.

If it was possible to remove the existential concerns both sides have, then it might be possible to move to some reasonable arrangement. The way this has sometimes been done is to exchange hostages, and as the Israeli-Palestinians are already effectively taking each other hostage, perhaps this could be formalized in some useful way. Gaza for the Settlements? The Wall for the Mosque? A miniature version of MAD?

Objectively, the Palestinians and Israelis need each other a lot more than they need anyone else and all the strife is aimed at hiding this need from them.

And what on Earth is to be done about the refugees in the camps? They can't stay there. That has to be included in the endgame, doesn't it?

Frank@ooohgottastopdoingdrugs.com



To: Dayuhan who wrote (101877)6/18/2003 11:23:52 AM
From: Hawkmoon  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 281500
 
I think it’s important to look at why things developed the way they did. I also think it’s important to understand causation without invoking blame, but that’s never going to happen on a large scale.

Very well put and you won't get any signicant argument from me on that point. The past cannot be changed or altered. Only the future can be changed. And unfortunately, I believe that many Palestinian politicians have been preying on people's resentment for real, or perceived wrongs. It's a convenient manner in which to deflect criticism of the current government, while generating the ability to blame someone else for their miserable state of existence.

The problem is that the "Palestinians" (as we refer to this "quasi-nationality") have been pawns since the day the Ottoman Empire fell.. They are group of people who, had the Zionists never been permitted to settle in Palestine, would now be Jordanians, Egytians, and Syrians. They would not be Palestinians, nor would Arafat or the PLO ever been permitted to develop...

They would be exploited by the ruling elite, just as current Arabs and "Palestinians" are. They would be earning the same effective GDP per capita as most Jordanians, if even that.

The fact is that Jordan, prior to Israel's conquest of the West Bank, treated the residents of the West Bank like some kind of neo-colonialist holding. They would export revenue from the West Bank (where trade with Israel and other states generated more income than the East Bank) and refused to invest any real money into improving infrastructure in the territory. This was clearly seen when the Israelis captured the region and found they had to spend tremendous amounts of money to upgrade basic utilities and services, plugging it into their grid and waste treatment systesms.

The bottom line is that the average "Palestinian" probably possessed far fewer rights and economic opportunity under Jordanian rule than has been the case under the Israelis.

And even now, despite the Billions in dollars that Arafat has siphoned off for his own use (and could use to alleviate much of the economic problems in the PA), more than 40% of Palestinians are dependent upon employment in Israel.

Thus, history can provide a sense of context, when both sides OBJECTIVELY. And while we're discussing the plight of the average "Palestinian", whom fate (and the Hashemites miscalculations and perfidy) has abandoned, we should discuss the plight of Occidental Jews who have been kicked out of the various Arab nations in the region, including Jordan (where national law forbids Jews from being citizens).

nationalreview.com

Contrasted with the fact that 20% of Israel consists of non-Jewish CITIZENS (with voting rights), obviously some onus should be upon the Arabs to show a bit more of the tolerance and acquiesence they demand from the Jews.

Hawk