Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Gold/Mining/Energy : Precious and Base Metal Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: gold$10k who wrote (12656)	6/18/2003 5:11:30 PM
From: jimsioi	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 39344

Valutrader, "best" and most likely sideways... With gold unable to get through $364 and slammed when it attempts such folly as to rise to that level in the face of persistent commercial short sales, going sideways will be good. Several dents showed up in the indicators I follow suggesting momentum peak was reached yesterday. A pull back, build up in negativity, volume contraction then another push. The HUI's ratio to GOLD (point 43) is at the higher end of the scale and a pullback / consolidation after a break out would be the normal technical expectation. Getting something different will be type of surprise one has to pay attention to...bwdik....pretending more than a little is dangerous. HUI - see the DMI and RSI.. stockcharts.com[h,a]dbcaynay[dc][pc50!c200!c20!c13!f][iut!Ul14!Ub14!Lh14,3!Ll14!Ld20!Lya7,14,28]&pref=G See the GOLD / HUI ratio stockcharts.com[h,a]dbcaynay[de][pb40!c200!f][iut!Uf!Lb14!Lh14,3!Ll14!Ld20!Lya7,14,28]&pref=G

To: gold$10k who wrote (12656)	6/18/2003 5:21:22 PM
From: jimsioi	Respond to of 39344

Gap to the downside in GOLD This chart (an hourly) looks horrendous.....is this thing related to the HUI for which we have higher hopes.??? ts-lc.sc8.finance.lycos.com Gallemore's work shows poor momentum and a fickle trend indicator for GOLD....nothing good about that combination, AND still a struggle for trend among all commodites as represented by the CRB... Finding an up trend indicator among the lot of charts is difficult. If the economy is resurging it is not showing up in commodity prices... chartingyourfutures.com

To: gold$10k who wrote (12656)	6/18/2003 6:01:44 PM
From: TrueScouse	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 39344

vt: Who knows where the HUI is going over the next couple of weeks... breakout or correction? Of course I'd love to see it break out (vbg), but I'm not too concerned either way... IMHO, we have to keep reminding ourselves that it looks like we're in a primary (long-term) gold bull market -- to be confirmed, as CC has wisely pointed out, by a move above $415. And bull markets in gold don't behave like "normal" markets in gold. e.g. It's widely assumed that gold prices always go down in the summer. However, if you look at the long term charts, during bull markets this just hasn't been the case. By my reckoning, there have been 3 major up-moves in gold in the last 25 years (late-70s, 1982, mid-80s) and just look what happened in July and August during those years: 1978: +$26 1979: +$38 1982: +$94 1985: +$15 1986: +$38 1987: +$8 i.e. Gold moved up every summer in the last quarter century when there's been a bull market. Last year (2002) was the only exception -- but then the bull hasn't yet been confirmed! :^) If you look at just the months of July, there was a significant move up in every year -- and also in 1993, although this was followed by a sharp correction in August of that year. So, I'm hoping for a repeat performance in 2003 -- and 2004 of course! Incidentally, in most of those years, the POG was very quiet in June, but then it really took off in July. Food for thought... Regards, Howy