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Politics : Support the French! Viva Democracy! -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: epicure who wrote (1250)	6/18/2003 5:22:22 PM
From: E. T.	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 7841

Sorry, I give the Iraqis more credit than you do. I've bookmarked your prediction. I say we confer on any positive progress or anarchy in Iraq on a yearly basis to see how things are proceeding. Let's give this a five year scope. It'll have gone to hell or heaven by then.

To: epicure who wrote (1250)	6/19/2003 3:00:41 AM
From: Dale Baker	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 7841

Just for the record, the USSR held little sway in ex-Yugoslavia, it was the death of Tito that unleashed the nationalist forces in 1991, compounded by almost 20 years of Tito catering to ethnic minorities in a grand juggling scheme that collapsed when he died in the 1980's. Interesting to note that the "ethnic and religious differences" in ex-Yugoslavia were mostly imaginary. Ethnically there is not a dime's worth of difference between Serbs, Croats and Bosniaks. Same people, same history for centuries, just different imperial occupiers (Austrians on the Croat side and Turks on the Serb/Bosnian side). Religion was a joke after 45 years of communism. In 1990, you couldn't find two people in ten who could explain the basic tenets of the "faith" they professed for nationalist reasons only a year later. Anyone who went to church had their name recorded by communist party monitors outside every church and mosque, with the usual consequences for advancement at work, etc. Iraq is a much more dangerous mix. The Arab-Kurd ethnic divide is very real. The Sunni-Shiite divide is very real - religious affiliation has been an active part of their lives for centuries (instead of a quaint Ottoman legacy like Bosnia). FWIW, a staff officer on Colin Powell's staff in 1991 told me later that Bush Sr. expressly avoided toppling Iraq because the US did not want to risk a fragmented Iraq destabilizing the region. Finally, a BBC story on the UN's work in Afghanistan noted yesterday that UN workers cannot travel on the ground in 40% of the country thanks to the resurgence of Taliban and local militia activity. So much for "liberation".