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Strategies & Market Trends : Trading with Jerry Olson(OJ) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Dan Duchardt who wrote (1097)	6/22/2003 10:17:16 AM
From: Jerry Olson	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1617

here's my June 8th Newsletter............. =========================================================== JERRY OLSON'S "POINT" OF VIEW NEWSLETTER DATED JUNE 8TH 2003 "IS IT A BIRD? IS IT A PLANE? NO! IT'S SUPERMARKET" Hello my cybertrading buddies... Well guess what? Yep it's raining here again...hmmmm 40 days and 40 nights...makes you wonder if GOD was short this market<gggggg> If he's crying large tears like the other shorts, i'll understand, but we can help him like he helps us right?...I'm sending him a free subscription to my newsletter<VBG> Now please you very religious people I am only making some fun here..no disrespect at all...But quite realistically I doubt anyone expected this much rain in the Philly area..certainly not me. In fact I doubt if anyone on Wall(fall) Street ever expected this much enthusiasm as the current market is exhibiting here. The non believers are dumb<g>founded at the veracity of this latest rally. Actually so am I....heh heh heh...But we did trade it well right? We were on the right train and the right track all the way till Friday..Non stop except for some cautious comments along the way on those beautiful pullbacks we so sorely needed as we zoomed higher and higher. We took profits along this path as good traders often do, only to get back into the game the very next reversal back up..We played it like a Stradavarius<sp>?... And speaking of Super-Markets, heck this was like walking up and down the isles picking this stock out that option out placing it in our shopping cart and then checking out with change to spare..Folks these stocks were nicely discounted then, we had a ton of sideline cash to expend, but now there are NO Coupons to redeem, there is no buy one get one free there...We are beyond that...Yes it was spectacular no doubt about it...But remember this, we are traders hence we could care less which way this market moves up or down, right? Those of you that do not know how to short you need to get on this bandwagon soon...It's not any different than going long. I know you can't short in your IRA's but you can buy certain Mutual Funds like the RYDEX suite of funds that are short the S&P 500 index 2x the index..nice folks...Maybe you can and will use PUT Options. It matters not, just get ready...Focus and think... Ok so where are we now and where are we going?. Well you know i hate to speculate, it's really nothing more than a guess at best...When you follow a certain technical criteria and it's working like a well oiled machine for so long, all you really need to do is continue on the same path that "brung" you to this dance..That's exactly what I intend to do..Far be it for me to try and change WHAT IS....THAT'S NUTS...Nope not me and certainly not you. We are following this train for as long as it wants to go...Yes the P&F(Point & Figure) indicators are way up there folks, sure we're going to correct at some point..But as for now? we continue to trade this trend UP, not down..We are in a major long side move here and NO ONE KNOWS WHEN IT WILL STOP..NO ONE... I fully expect a short quick correction this week, and i'll discuss below where we "could" stop and reverse back up..Remember this..We have the FOMC on the 24th and 25th, the markets are thinking they'll cut there to help this slow moving economy. I'm not so sure yet and will reserve my opinion till late next week as we watch the Fed Funds rates fluctuate before the meeting...Next we have the start of warnings season just after Options Expiration week(always volatile) during the week of the 16th thru the 20th...I am going to have some quick hit option plays for 1-2 days into that week..This for good scalp traders with experience..Not for newbies that are just now new to trading and options too.. Now let's please visit the current BP's(Bullish Percents)., and what they mean in the scheme of things...At the March lows we had all the BP'S skewed to the left of the 50 yard line below 30% some were in single digits then...It looked like a pile up on the freeway as sectors were stacked up on top of one another as they all became "washedout"..Sellers were done..More importantly we were just 20 points off the Oct 2002 lows on the SPX too boot..that occurrence was a true DOUBLE BOTTOM..A significant double bottom I might add, as we witnessed it in the real time room that day, as it became an "outside reversal day"..That's a day of trading that takes out yesterdays lows and highs and closes at the highs...A Key Reversal in the markets.. Now here's the current picture..We are heavily overbought here..the BP"s are way up there and will reverse at some point..Btw(by the way) they can stay here for weeks or even months..no telling ...We trade the current trend and plan without looking behind over our shoulders..WHAT IS...IS.......PERIOD! Here's a look at all the sectors in Oct 2002 they were at 22.44% then in March of 2003 35.85% and now? 69%..that's high folks...I think by now you have the picture..Risks are mounting at these lofty levels..You need to begin to PLAN YOUR EXIT STRATEGIES...You can outright sell everything and go to cash. You can place tighter stop loss action points on all stocks and ETF's. You can buy protective puts on your whole portfolio..You can write Covered Calls, you can do a multitude of actions here that will ultimately protect your gains and your trading/investing capital...I will not warn you again..You have the information you know what you should do it's all up to you...What I will do is let us all know when we begin to deteriorate...it's not happening yet... ================================================================================================ OK LET'S CHECK ALL THE INDEXES AND BP''S..YOU ALL NEED TO TAKE THE P&F COURSE ON THE DORSEYWRIGHT SITE...IT'S IMPERATIVE... www.dorseywright.com let them know i sent you..they saved me a long long time ago... DJIA---RIGHT NOW IT'S AT THE TOP OF THE 10 WEEK TRADING BAND(MEANING IT'S 100%) OVERBOUGHT. IT TOUCHED 9200..LOOK FOR THE 1ST 3 BOX REVERSAL BACK DOWN(3BXRVDN) AT 9050. WE NEED A BREATHER HERE AND I THINK WE'LL GET IT THIS WEEK...MY UPSIDE HORIZONTAL COUNT IS STILL AT 9450. SO MAYBE WE PULLBACK(PB) AND THEN MAKE ONE LAST ATTEMPT AT THE SUMMIT. THE 20 EMA ON THE DAILY CANDLE CHART(DCC) IS AT 8775, AND THE FIBO RETRACE AT 38.2% IS AT 8510.00 THE NYSE BP IS AT 73.36% OVER THE GOAL LINE FOLKS...TOUCHDOWN<G>... COMPX---5 CONSECUTIVE BUY SIGNALS FROM THE LOWS AT 1260 TO THE LAST WEEK HIGHS OF 1680..WOW THAT'S ONE HECK OF A RUN HUH?. THE 38.2% RETRACE LOW TO HIGH OFF THAT RUN IS 1517. THE 20 EMA IS AT 1560. 1650 IS THE 3BXRVDN WITH A MOVE TOWARD 1600-1580 POSSIBLE FOR THIS BREATHER IF THERE IS ONE<G>...THE OTC BP IS AT 67.35% HISTORICAL HIGHS. I LOOKED AT THE 20 POINT BOX CHART TO MOVE BACK A STEP AND SLOW IT DOWN A NOTCH..ONE OF THE PRETTIEST CHARTS YOU'LL EVER SEE..SYMMETRICAL IN EVERYWAY..INVERTED HEAD AND SHOULDERS..PERFECT... SOX---HIT MY P/O(PRICE OBJECTIVE) AT 400 AND RAN TO 412. BROKE A DOUBLE TOP(DT) AT 390 AS ADVERTISED. FRIDAY'S STICK IS AN INVERTED HAMMER NOT ALWAYS SO BEARISH. 20 EMA ON THE DCC IS AT 360 THE 38.2% IS RIGHT THERE TOO...IN OCT 2002 THE BP SEMI GOT TO 8%, IN THE RECENT MARCH LOWS IT GOT TO 24% IT'S RIGHT NOW AT 78.69% HELLO? KNOCK KNOCK? 395 THE 3BXRVDN---370 THE DB, 365 TROUBLE... BKX---THE BANKING SECTOR, IN AN EXPLOSION FROM 820 TOUCHED 885 LAST WEEK...POWERFUL CHART FOLKS JUST NEEDS A BREATHER HERE. WATCH 855 FOR THE PULLBACK. 20 EMA AT 825--38.2% AT 800 THE MAJOR RESISTANCE(R) IT BROKE OUT FROM. SO IT SHOULD OFFER EXCELLENT SUPPORT(S) THERE... BTK---WHAT WITH ALL THE AMAZING NEWS WITHIN THE CONFINES OF THIS SECTOR NO WONDER IT EXPLODED UP...SUFFICE IT TO SAY THIS CHART IS MAGNIFICENT. 5 STRAIGHT BUY SIGNALS FROM THE LOWS AT 310 TO 510 GETTING STRONGER ON EACH ONE OF THOSE SIGNALS...490 THE GOOD PULLBACK AREA...20 EMA AT 433 SAME FOR THE 38.2% RETRACE...THE BP BIOM IS AT 75.33% AT THE LOWS IT WAS 26% IN JULY OF LAST YEAR IT WAS 10%..AMAZING... NDX---UN REAL CHART PATTERNS ALL THE WAY UP..BROKE 3 SPECIFIC AREAS IN THIS CLIMB TO THE RECENT TOP LAST WEEK.. 1ST AT 1030, 2ND AT 1100, THE THE 3RD AT 1170 THAT TRIPLE TOP B/O. SO IT RAN FROM 950 TO 1260..WHAT A POP..WHEW! 1210 A GOOD NORMAL RETRACE WITH THE 20 EMA AT 1170 HMMM SOUND FAMILIAR 1145 IS THE 38.2% RETRACE..THE BP NDX IS AT 91.00% UP FROM THE MAR NUMBER AT 30% AND THE OCT 2002 LOWS AT 14%..HELLO AGAIN... SPX---MY KEY INDEX CHART INDICATOR...BROKE A DT AT 950 AND SOARED UP TO 1000 RIGHT AT MY UPSIDE TARGET..UNREAL GUESS<G>...IT'S AT THE TOP OF THE 10 WEEK TRADING BAND TOO. THERE WAS A GRAVESTONE DOJI ON FRIDAY LIKE THE DOW.. SO LOOK FOR MORE PB HERE EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE BP SPX IS AT 82% UP FROM 28% IN MAR. I THINK FROM THAT SHAKEOUT PATTERN AND THE RECENT RUN UP 965 LOOKS ABOUT RIGHT FOR A GOOD PB AREA. VIX & VXN---BOTH LOOK BETTER ON THEIR CHARTS AS THE TRY TO GIVE BUY SIGNALS OFF THE BOTTOMS. THE VXN DID THAT BUT THE VIX HAS NOT YET..I'M WATCHING THIS DIVERGENCE AND WILL COMMENT ON IT DURING THE WEEK... SPM3---THE FUTURES...THE ES03M WILL GIVE A SELL SIGNAL AT 960, THE 2ND SELL SIGNAL IN AN UPTREND..A SHAKEOUT PATTERN...GRAVESTONE DOJI FRIDAY WITH THE 20 EMA AT 952.00 AND THE 38.2% RETRACE MAR LOW TO LAST WEEKS TOP IS AT 922.00...WE NEED TO NOT BREAK DOWN HERE ...THE MIDDLE OF THE 10 WEEK IS AT 916 RIGHT WHERE THAT 1ST SHAKEOUT CAME FROM...INTERESTING SITUATION RIGHT HERE..WE'LL WATCH IT... =============================================================================================== SO WHAT DO WE HAVE HERE? WE HAVE A MARKET THAT'S HEAVILY OVERBOUGHT, WITH A POSSIBLE SHORT TERM SPIKE DOWN THIS WEEK TO CORRECT THIS EXCESSIVE RUN. WILL IT BE NORMAL OR THE START OF SOME THING MORE SINISTER?...WE'LL HAVE TO SEE... FOR NOW I WOULD GUESS A PULLBACK TO BUY INTO THE FOMC AND JULY'S EARNINGS SEASON..REMEMBER THE STREET IS GOING TO BE AWFULLY EXCITED ABOUT THIS QUARTERS NUMBERS AND USUALLY WE CORRECT THE LAST RUN UP BEFORE THE NEXT ONE...SO IF WE GET A SOLID RETRACE DOWN, IT WILL SET US UP FOR A MORE SUSTAINED RUN INTO EARLY JULY...TRULY EXCITING TIMES FOR US TRADERS.. ============================================================================================== OK LET'S CHECK IN TO OUR WONDERFUL WORLD OF STOCKS TO WATCH AND TRADE THIS WEEK.. BRCM---OOH LA LA..ALMOST HIT MY TARGET AT 30 BUCKS. EVERYONE THAT TRADED THIS STOCK MADE MONEY...EVERYONE!...ON A HIGH POLE(THIS IS OVER BOUGHT FOLKS) LIKE EVERYTHING IS ON A HIGH POLE. JUST LIKE EVERYTHING IS WAS OVERSOLD AT THE MARCH LOWS ON LOW POLES...26.50 THE BTL(BUY TRIGGER LONG)---25.50 THE SST..NEEDS A PB...25 THE 3BXRVDN..SET ALERTS... PDLI---HIT MY UPSIDE TARGET AT 20 AND PLUS SOME TOO...WE KILLED THIS STOCK LONG FOLKS..A HOMERUN FOR US ALL...ON A HIGH POLE HERE..NEEDS TO COME BACK TO EARTH...18.50 THE 3BXRVDN...BUT MAYBE CLOSER TO THE 20 EMA AT 14.15 AREA WOULD BE AWESOME...19.10 THE BTL---18.35 THE SST... ADBE---HAS EARNINGS ON THE 12TH THIS WEEK..I''D LIKE TO TRADE IT LONG ON A PB AHEAD OF IT...BROKE A DT AT 39 AND TOUCHED 40 ONLY TO PB TO 37 AREA..35 WOULD BE A GIFT...NOT SURE IT WILL GET THERE...37.85 THE BTL---36.75 THE SST--- AMZN---ON THAT PROVERBIAL HIGH POLE AND LOOKING LIKE IT'S GOING DOWN...33 IS THE 3BXRVDN...33.85 THE BTL---32.90 THE SST---I LIKE IT SHORT MARKET WILLING...SHORT SCALP THAT IS... HOLY COW BATGIRL..."I LIKE IT SHORT" <GULP> I HAVEN'T UTTERED THOSE WORDS FOR 3 SOLID MONTHS...WOW.. CEPH---CHART STILL LOOKS GOOD 45 THE 3BXRVDN...AND MAYBE A GOOD SET UP FOR ANOTHER POP...LONG...46.55 THE BTL---45.60 THE SST...HIGH VOLUME SELLOFF FRIDAY IN THIS BIO TECH... CHIR---THIS STOCK HAD A LOT OF OVERHEAD(O/H) R AT 42 & 43..IT BROKE THAT AND TOOK OUT THE SELLERS THERE. 45 THE 3BXRVDN...PLEASE SET ALERTS ON THE 3 BOX REVERSAL AS THEY ARE GOOD SET UPS FOR LONGS IF THEY CAN GET THERE...DARK CLOUD COVER DCC CHART FRIDAY...47.05 THE BTL---46.15 THE SST... ICOS---THIS THING IS UP FROM 15 TO 44...BIG SPIKE UP FRIDAY AND DOJI'D HARD...VERY BULLISH CHART HOWEVER I WANT TO TAKE THIS LONG USING OPTIONS FOR JULY/AUG TIME FRAME...LET'S CALL IT THE 38.2% RETRACE BACK DOWN IS AT 34...I DOUBT IT GETS THERE...37 IS THE MIDDLE OF THE 10 WEEK TRADING BAND..I LIKE IT THERE...40.80 THE BTL---39.70 THE SST---DID BOUNCE AT THE CLOSE ON THE MAJOR DOJI... REMEMBER WHEN ANY NEWS COMES OUT ON CANCER CURES THE WHOLE GROUP ROCKS UP..WE NEED NEWS FEEDS PLEASE...ESP ON BIO TECHS THEY ARE REALLY ROCKIN... IDPH---BROKE A DT AT 42 ENDED UP AT 39.50..BIG SPIKE DOWN ON THAT REVERSAL IN THE MARKETS FRIDAY...40 THE BTL---39.00 THE SST...37-38 WOULD BE NICE... MERQ---CLEARED MAJOR R AT 40 LAST WEEK TOUCHED 44 I HAD IT LONG AT 40.29 AND HELD IT OVER THE NEXT DAY SOLD IT AT 41.85...42.70 THE BTL---41.70 THE SST...41 THE 3BXRVDN YHOO---27 THE 3BXRVDN HAS A GREAT LOOKING CHART...VERY STRONG...AT THE 20 EMA DCC HERE. 28.45 THE BTL---27.40 THE SST---I LIKE IT SHORT... NVDA---WAAAY UP THERE IN THE CLOUDS..SHOULD PB HERE FOR SURE..IT'S ABOVE THE 10 WK...110% OVERSOLD...26.45 THE BTL---25.30 THE SST..I'LL TAKE THAT SHORT... QCOM---RALLIED BACK UP OFF THE LOWS AT 30 TO 35.63..THEN SOLD OFF...CHART LOOKS LIKE A SOLID SHORT...BIG BEARISH ENGULFING STICK FRIDAY AND A FULL OUTSIDE REVERSAL STICK TOO BOOT...34.10 THE BTL---33.00 THE SST..I LIKE IT SHORT... EBAY---DOUBLE TOPPED AT 102 AND JUST GAVE A SELL SIGNAL ON P&F..94 IS THE DOWNSIDE TARGET THE MID OF THE 10WK...97.60 THE BTL---96.25 THE SST...BECAUSE OF THE PRICE OF EBAY YOU CAN USE PUTS OR CALLS TO TRADE IT... EXPE---PHENOMENAL CHART JUST BROKE A DT AT 75 ON FRIDAY BUT REALLY SOLD OFF ON SOME MUCH NEEDED PROFIT TAKING...ALMOST ALL STOCKS GOT SOLD EARLY FRIDAY..I SOLD RIGHT BEFORE 11 AM EST ALL MY LONGS EXCEPT DELL...72.25 THE BTL---70.95 THE SST...I'D TAKE THAT SST... USAI---ANOTHER PRETTY INTERNET STOCK THAT WE ALL MADE BOO KOO BUCKS ON OVER THE LAST 3-4 WEEKS..THE 3 AMIGOS NEED A REST HERE...37.70 THE BTL---36.70 THE SST--- SNDK---THIS STOCK IS SO OVERBOUGHT IT'S NOT EVEN FUNNY..WHEN IT HAD EARNINGS LAST QUARTER WE LISTENED AFTER HOURS... IT EXPLODED STRAIGHT UP WITHOUT 1 3 BX REVERSAL BACK DOWN..NOT 1. IT WAS 16.50 THEN IT TOPPED OUT AT 38 DOLLARS..OH WOW..I SAID IN MY NEWSLETTER THE "BUY THE JULY 15 CALLS"..DID I? NAH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 36.50 THE BTL---35.35 THE SST.... 30 IS THE 38.2% RETRACE... KLAC---POWERFUL BULLISH CATAPULT PATTERN ON P&F CHART...BROKE A TRIPLE TOP AT 41 REVERSED DOWN THEN TOOK OUT 44 ON A DOUBLE TOP B/O...HIT 51...I HAD A IT TWICE LAST WEEK AND USED OPTIONS TOO..WAS SWEET...49.70 THE BTL---48.70 THE SST...I'LL BUY THE PB NEAR 46-47... NVLS---CHART IS STRAIGHT UP ON THE DCC...NEEDS A REST HERE..BUT SURE IS PRETTY AND BUYABLE THE STREET LOVES THIS STOCK AND I HAVE NO IDEA WHY?...39.05 THE BTL---37.95 THE SST... NTAP---VERY NICE CHART PATTERN NOT TOO EXTEND EITHER..17.95 THE BTL---16.90 THE SST--- DELL---STILL LONG THE JUNE 30 CALLS HAVE 2 WEEKS TILL OP EX WEEK AT THE 20TH...STOCK MAKES A HIGH AT 32.77 SELLS OFF ON SOLID EARNINGS REPORT TO THE 40 EMA DCC...THEN RALLIES UP 2 WEEKS AGO AND PB AGAIN BUT THIS THE 20 EMA...NOW IT HAS DARK CLOUD COVER...WE'LL SEE HUH?....31.70 THE BTL---29.95 THE SST... =============================================================================================== I WANTED TO TOUCH BASE ON THIS "10 WEEK TRADING BAND" FOR THE NEWBIES HERE...OR FREE TRIALERS...ON ANY CHART WE HAVE A BOTTOM MIDDLE AND TOP...IF YOUR AT THE TOP OF THE CHART WE SAY YOUR 100% OVERBOUGHT, AT THE BOTTOM 100% OVERSOLD, MIDDLE THE MIDDLE...IF THE STOCKS ON MY CHARTS ARE ABOVE ALL RESISTANCE AREA'S THEN ANY PB WILL BE TOWARD THE MIDDLE FROM ABOVE...IF WE ARE BELOW THE MIDDLE..THEN THE BOUNCE BACK "UP" WILL BE TOWARD THE MIDDLE FROM BELOW...SO WEAKER STOCK ARE BELOW..STRONGER STOCKS ARE ABOVE THE R AREAS. THE PASSWORD FOR THIS WEEK IS.........bubbles...............one word lower case.... LET'S KEEP THIS WINNING STREAK GOING STRONG YOU ALL HERE?... HAVE A GOOD EVENING WARMEST REGARDS JERRY www.buyitbuyitsellitsellit.com jerry.olson@verizon.net