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Strategies & Market Trends : Trading with Jerry Olson(OJ) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jerry Olson who wrote (1098)	6/29/2003 5:01:50 PM
From: Jerry Olson	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1617

well that supermarket seems to be running out of stock<VBG>...my newsletter from the 15th..good luck my SI friends.. ========================================================= POINT" OF VIEW NEWSLETTER DATED JUNE 15TH 2003 "NICKS-DENTS"CHINKS" Hello my cyber trading buddies..Guess what? It rained on Sat...Do you suppose someone is trying to tell me something?<g> But here it is on dear ole Fathers Day..Bright and Sunny and really hot...Maybe we broke this crazy string of the worst weekends in the history of Philly...The Sun will shine tomorrow?, it's a song right?<ggggggggggg> Ok so what's up with the markets. Well i'll tell you. First of all every single indicator on Point & Figure is still in positive territory albeit way up there. Nothing has turned down. So you're saying to yourself why did I sell "all my longs" on Friday. It's very simple. I did not like the action in several stocks I trade, and the SOX index broke a double bottom at 365 another negative for me. And, that Friday before had a large reversal stick in it that was not taken out. I have to explain to you what's best for me and my money, because it directly effects you and your money. Years ago when I just started high school in Atlantic City I loved horse racing at the AC Race Course..I watched Round Table and Beau Purple etc run there it was a thrill for me.. I've owned thoroughbreds, Harness horses that ran at the Meadowlands in NJ, I owned racing Greyhounds too, and of course I liked to gamble and bet at the tracks and casinos. But the markets are different for me.. I do not gamble. I do not guess, I trade technically and intuitively, I make my living trading everyday..this is my Profession, my job, so I am very cognizant of wind changes that catch my eyes.. I must have said this 1000 times before..Keeping one's trading capital is of the utmost importance, without it your done forever. When I have a large amount of money on the table and things start to get a bit dicey, I bail, and I take it ALL off at one time. Not in pieces.. I've always traded that way..then when I check my account and it's all in cash and it grew again, I feel so good about it...Look it matters not if we continue to take profits here, you can still be long, you can still have hard stops in place..If you trade without them you're dumber than a bull frog. Over the last 3+ months I have gone to full cash 4 times. I fully expect to redeploy the cash this week again, on the long side once again. At these lofty levels we can still move higher. In fact if we get a solid pullback early this week into Wednesday or so I am going back into the long side for one more ride up. I'll be a bit more cautious, more prudent, and quicker on the trigger to take profits and losses. I will not wait here folks... I use options at these levels mostly for the leverage and the quick hit strategy I've always used at market tops and bottoms...why expend Hugh amounts of capital? Not necessary. So what I'm thinking here is this. We have the FOMC 2 day meeting on the 24th and 25th. The street has priced in a .25% basis cut into the markets..a 50 would be deadly in my opinion... and no cut would have the same result..we just want that 25. I think the market will "rally" ahead & past this date. At the same time we have this big time bio tech conference on the 22nd thru the 25th.. I fully intend to play 4-5 bios for the runs into this date and probably buy those calls mid week. We can say without a second thought that this market's sentiment and perception has been as bullish as ever. I feel it's overdone and will change..We have bought "all" bad news, and of course good news just propped the markets, so to my way of thinking, all the good news is priced in here. Only the bad news is going to shake this market now. I am telling you all, let your relatives and friends know, not to invest here. We are too overbought and they'll get trapped at the top. Forget it till late fall, then we'll dive into the abyss and buy it all over again..We are not buy and holders folks. We are traders. The buy and holders of the old days are finished. It cannot be done successfully any longer. Truth be known, we do not need to buy and hold. There's no earthly reason to become a bag holder ever again. Let's just trade these markets like we know best. Sometimes we can hold overnight, others we go to cash each night sleeping like babies, while others are fretting the night away, another song<G>? Look everyone our goal is to make a days pay, and continue to grow our capital reserves, as you check your trading account each week make sure thats exactly what is happening. It's going to very very important for you to track and set alerts on all the Indexes below...as changes this week could move these major indexes one way or the other..I am starting to see things in the charts ahead of the turns of the short term indicators to make me a bit wary...So as these numbers are hit either to the upside or downside, my thinking is it will be more than one major index thats moving in the "same direction", and that will be the keys to the city. Please again if your using options do in the monies and use July Aug for safety..This Friday is triple witching Friday when all options and futures expire together... It's always volatile and wild..If it trades true to form Wends should be down with thurs fri up. ================================================================================================ OK LET'S CHECK ALL THE INDEXES WITH THERE'S RESPECTIVE BULLISH PERCENTS. THE ONLY INDEX THAT BROKE DOWN LAST WEEK IS THE SOX INDEX THE SEMICONDUCTOR INDEX..AND THE BP IS NOW WITHIN 2.50% AWAY FROM A MAJOR REVERSAL DOWN...THAT WOULD NAIL IT FOR THE SEMIS...I HAVE THE JULY SMH 30 PUTS FOR A TRADE THIS WEEK ONLY. DJIA---SITTING AT 9117, 9250 IS A DOUBLE TOP(DT) BUY SIGNAL ON P&F. 9050 IS THE 3 BOX REVERSAL BACK DOWN(3BXRVDN) IT WOULD START A SHAKEOUT PATTERN. EVERYTHING ON THIS CHART IS STILL "POSITIVE". THE 100 POINT CHART IS ON A HIGH POLE. 8900 WOULD SET IT UP FOR A POTENTIAL MOVE UP AGAIN. THE 20 EMA(EXPONENTIAL MOVING AVERAGE) ON THE DAILY CANDLE CHART(DCC) IS AT 8900!!! THE NYSE BP IS AT 74.58% AND IS SHOWING "NO" SIGNS OF MOVING LOWER JUST YET... COMPX---FORMING A LARGE TRIANGLE ON P&F CHART...IT MADE A 3BXRVDN LAST WEEK TO 1630...SO THE SET UP IS LIKE THIS. IT HAS ROOM DOWN TO 1610 WITHOUT A BREAK. 1590 IS THE DOUBLE BOTTOM(DB) BREAKDOWN. AND 1580 A HUGH NEGATIVE. 1660 IS NOW THE 3BXREVUP WITH 1670 THE DT BUY AND 1690 A BREAKOUT OF MAJOR PROPORTIONS...SO YOUR ACTION POINTS ARE AS FOLLOWS...1590 THE DB. AND 1670 THE DT. BOTH ARE PRELUDES TO POTENTIAL MAJOR MOVES... THE OTC BULLISH PERCENT(BP) IS AT 68.39. I CAN SAY THAT TRIANGLES ABOVE ALL SUPPORTS USUALLY BREAK "UP"... SOX---BROKE A DB AT 365 AND TOIUCHED 360 TO CONFIRM THE BREAK. 375 THE 3BXRVUP. BUT THE MIDDLE OF THE 10 WEEK TRADING BAND(10WK) IS AT 345 WITH THE BULLISH SUPPORT LINE(BSL) AT 340 SO VERY GOOD S(SUPPORT) THERE. I THINK THE SEMIS ARE A BIT COOKED HERE AND WOULD ONLY SCALP TRADE THEM FOR NOW. THE BP OF THE SEMIS IS AT 74.59% DOWN FROM 78% AND ONLY 2.41% FROM THAT 3BXRVDN..REMEMBER IT TAKES A FULL 6% CHANGE OF TREND TO MOVE THIS INDEX AND INDICATOR DOWN..THIS TO ME "IF" IT HAP[PENS IS A LARGE NEGATIVE GOING FORWARD..A MAJOR CHINK IN THE MARKET ARMOUR. BTK---STILL IN A NICE UPTREND AND TOPPED OUT AT 510. CAME ALL THE WAY DOWN TO 455, BUT RALLIED UP OFF THAT NUMBER TO MAKE A SOLID HIGHER LOW..MEANING ANOTHER ONE..SWEET. IT'S IN A COLUMN OF X'S AND MOVING UP HERE...BUT HERE'S THE DEAL. 485 KEEPS IT MOVING UP. 465 IS THE 3BXRVDN AND ANY BREAK OF 445 WOULD BE LARGE TROUBLE ESPICALLY IF THE SOX IS MOVING DOWN WITH IT..COMPRENDE' FOLKS? GOT THE PICTURE..AND THIS IS JUST A HEADSUP OF WHAT "MIGHT" HAPPEN...WATCH IT...THE BP BIOM IS AT 77.27 SOLID AS A ROCK RIGHT NOW. *JUST REMEMBER..WE HAVE THE BIO TECH CONFERENCE ON THE 22ND THRU THE 25TH WITH THE FOMC RIGHT THERE TOO..COULD BE A LARGE MOVE UP IN THE BIO TECHS AHEAD OF THAT CONFERENCE...WE NEED THE ENTIRE ROOM AND ALL NEWSLETTER PEOPLE TO HELP US STAY FULLY INFORMED OF BREAKTHROUGH STATEMENTS IN SELECTED BIOS...THEY WILL EXPLODE..* NDX---1200 WAS NEARLY TOUCHED...1185 IS THE 61.8% RETRACE BACK DOWN OFF THE MARCH LOWS TO THE JUNE HIGHS. A BREAK OF 1180 AND WE GET A SELL SIGNAL. 1240 KEEPS IT MOVING UP. PLEASE SET ALERTS ON THS INDEX AND ALL OTHERS..VERY IMPORTANT. THIS INDEX COULD BE FORMING A TRIANGLE. 20 EMA AT 1187 TOO..SO WE CAN SEE EXCELLENT S AT THE 1185-90 AREA IF IT GETS THERE. THE BP NDX HIT A WHOPPING 90% NOW AT 87%..84% IS THE 3BXRVDN AND REAL TROUBLE... BKX---DOUBLE TOPPED AT 885 ALSO HIT THE TOP OF THE 10 WEEK TRADING BAND TOO. A MOVE BELOW 870 IS THE 3BXRVDN, 850 THE DB SELL SIGNAL AND 890 IS A HUGH B/O. THE CHART SO FAR IS SOLID AS A ROCK..EVEN WIRTH FREDDIE MAC TROUBLE?. 20 EMA DCC CHART AT 846 THATS A 100% RETRENCHMENT BACK DOWN... SPX---VERY INTERESTING CHART PATTERN HERE. AT 1000 THE SET UP IS SIMPLE. 1010 A TRIPLE TOP B/O AND A BIG ONE FOLKS. 970 IS THE DB BREAKDOWN. THIS COULD BE A SHAKEOUT PATTERN..I SAID COULD BE..WE'LL SEE. BP SPX IS AT 81.00% DOWN FROM 82% THE 20 EMA IS AT 865 AND THE 61.8% RETRENCHMENT IS AT 973..WATCHING MY FAVORITE INDEX RIGHT NOW.. SPU3--SPOOS-FUTURES---MAJOR TRIANGLE HERE SET ALERTS. THE 3BXRVUP IS AT 996 WITH 1008 A SPREAD TRIPLE TOP B/O BUY SIGNAL. THEN 968 THE DB BREAKDOWN AND ANYTHING BELOW 960 IS DEATH AND DESTRUCTION. 20 EMA DCC IS AT 960 61.*5 IS AT 980... VIX---RIGHT IN THE MIDDLE---26 THE DT BUG SIGNAL..20 THE TRIPLE BOTTOM BREAKDOWN...IT'S THAT SIMPLE... SO WE HAVE AN IMPORTANT WILD WEEK AHEAD...BE CAREFUL AND SET ALERTS..WATCH FOR ANY OF THESE INDEXS AS THEY MAY TRIGGER TOGETHER EITHER WAY..AND THEN TAKE ACTION. ============================================================================================= OK THIS IS TRIPLE WITCHING OPTIONS EXPIRATION WEEK..SHOULD BE WILD AND WHOLLY. USE HARD STOPS AND BE COOL. I'LL TRY TO GRAB SOME LONG OPTIONS POSITIONS IN THE STOCKS THAT ARE PRESENTING AT THE BIO TECH CONFERENCE & WILL BE AVOIDING THE SEMIS FOR NOW. WE CAN SCALP TRADE THEM BUT NOT HOLDING OVERNIGHT..WE HAVE WARNINGS SEASON OVER THE NEXT FEW WEEKS..AND OF COURSE END OF QUARTER WINDOW DRESSING THE LAST WEEK OF JUNE..THAT SHOULD BE BULLISH AHEAD OF EARNINGS SEASON. =============================================================================================== ICOS---MIGHT BE DOING A BUYING CLIMAX HERE..NOT SURE JUST YET ONLY MADE A 3BXRVDN LAST WEEK TO 43..BTW P&F ONLY USES ROUND NUMBERS FOLKS...I MADE VERY NICE MONEY ON THE JULY 35 CALLS I PURCHASED AT 7.00 AND SOLD AT 9.80, THEY WERE MUCH HIGHER...VOLUME ON FRIDAY WAS LOW. 43.65 THE BTL---42.65 THE SST..I'LL RE BUY THE JULY 35 CALLS IF IT CAN MOVE LOWER TOWARD 40/41 AREA EARLY...AT THE CONFERENCE. PDLI---I SOLD THE JULY 15 CALLS FOR $3.40 FROM 2.75 SO A GOOD TRADE..I'LL RE BUY THEM BACK ABOUT MID WEEK..IT'S HOLDING UP LIKE A ROCK..I DO NOT THINK IT'S PRESENTING AT THE CONFERENCE BUT IT WILL MOVE UP IN SYMPATHY WITH ALL THE REST OF THE BIOS...18.10 THE BTL---17.00 THE SST...16 IS A DB BREAKDOWN... DNA---I BROKE EVEN ON THIS OPTIONS TRADE SO NO HARM OR FOUL. THE STOCK IS IN A POWERFUL UPTREND ON ALL CHARTS AND TIME FRAMES. 71 IS THE 3BXRVDN...73.55 THE BTL---72.40 THE SST... STAT---IN A CUP FORMATION DCC CHART..HAD SOME BUYING INTEREST THURS AND FRIDAY...IT'S ALREADY COMPLETED A 3BXRVDN TO 7.50 AND NOW LOOKS POSIED TO B/O HERE...9.20 THE BTL---8.40 THE SST...I LIKE IT LONG UP AND OVER 9.50 THE DT BUY SIGNAL SHOULD RUN IT TO 11.00 ON THIS TRIP..BUY THE JULY 7.50 CALLS...TAQ-GU THEY'RE 1.80 TARO---THIS STOCK RAN UP ON THE GENERIC NEWS OUT OF WASHINGTON ON FRIDAY IT TOUCHED 57.63 AND SOLD OFF A FULL 2 POINTS TO 55.62..I WANT TO OWN THIS OPTION PLAY...JULY 55'S ARE 3.00 SYMBOL QTT-GK WAIT AND WATCH THE MARKETS INTO WEDS...LOOK FOR A CHEAP PRICE TO PAY HERE...56.20 THE BTL---55.10 THE SST... HEPH---JUMPED FRIDAY ON CANCER NEWS FROM EUROPE...EXCELLENT CHART MAKE UP HERE..VERY LOW FLOAT SO BE CAREFUL...RAN FROM 5.00 TO 16 STRAIGHT UP..THEN FELL BACK ON PROFIT TAKING TO 13 AND NOW HAS BROKEN THAT OLD TOP ON FRIDAY...16.95 THE BTL---15.95 THE SST...JULY 15 CALLS QGQ GC ARE AT 2.50..NOT TOO BAD THERE.. GILD---WHAT A GREAT CHART FOLKS ON A STELLAR STOCK & COMPANY...IT HELD A PERFECT DOUBLE BOTTOM AT 50 AND IS NOW RALLYING UP..I WOULD THINK MUTUAL FUNDS HOLD THIS ONE...54.30 THE BTL---53.20 THE SST..USE THE AUG 50 CALLS THE GDQ-HJ THEY'RE ABOUT 6.80. PRETTY BOUNCE OFF THE RISING 20 EMA DCC 4 DAYS AGO... NBIX---A VERY PRETTY CHART BOTH ON P&F AND DCC...CUP FORMATION DCC. AND A RECENT PULLBACK(PB) TO 52 FROM THE TOP AT 60..AND JUST LAST WEEK REVERSED UP 3 BOXES...VERY NICE WE NOW HAVE A SOLID STOP AREA FOR OUR STOCK OR OPTION TRADES...IF THE STOCK PRINTS 51 YOU EXIT THIS LONG...55.60 THE BTL---54.50 THE SST..THE JULY OR AUG 50'S ARE THE TRADES HERE..AND ANY BREAK OF 51 SAY GOODBYE...I'M TAKING THIS LONG USING OPTIONS... GERN---WELL FOR SOME DUMB REASON I BAILED ON THIS AND LOST SOME MONEY...AFTER LOOKING AT THE DCC IT'S A BULL FLAG PULLBACK ON LITE VOLUME TOO..I AM GOING LONG THIS USING THE SEPT CALLS AGAIN . BUY THE SEPT 7.50 CALLS GQD-IU FOR ABOUT 1.50...9.00 IS THE 3BXRVUP..AND 10 IS THE B/O BUY SIGNAL ON P&F...UPSIDE TARGET WOULD BE 11.50 IST TARGET, WITH 14.50 THE NEXT ONE...7.95 THE BTL---7.25 THE SST... CTX---WHAT A BULLISH CHART OF THIS HOMEBUILDER..POWERFUL TOO...84.65 THE BTL---83.55 THE SST---I LIKE THE JULY OR OCT CALLS HERE..MONEY IS STILL POURING INTO THIS SECTOR...CTX GP JULY 80'S... RYL---ANOTHER HOME BUILDER..I LOOKED AT HOV AND BZH BOTH LOOK JUST AS GOOD...74.95 THE BTL---73.60 THE SST...THE STOCK GAPPED ALL THE WAY UP TO 76.75..MAKE SURE THAT WAS NOT A BUIYING CLIMAX LAST WEEK...77 IS THE BIG B/O BUY SIGNAL... EBAY---IN A SHAKEOUT PATTERN RIGHT NOW. BROKE A DOUBLE BOTTOM AT 97 AND JUST REVERSED BACK UP 3 BOXES TO 100..THIS STOCK WILL NOT WARN, AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO RUN UP HIGHER INTO EARNINGS SEASON. 102 IS A TRIPLE TOP AREA AND HARD R..BUT 104 BLOWS THIS ONE UP AND OUT..I LIKE IT LONG WITH A STOP BELOW 96..I WOULD BAIL THERE...USE THE JULY 95'S THEY ARE 7.30 OR SO THE QXB GS... SNDK---POTENTIAL BUYING CLIMAX LAST WEEK..IT'S STARTING TO PB AFTER AN EXPLOSIVE RUN FROM LAST QUARTERS EARNINGS MAJOR SURPRISE.."NOW HEADSUP HERE"...THEY HAVE A CONFERENCE THIS JUNE 19TH THATS THIS THURS...I MAY TRY TO SNAG THIS LONG JUST BEFORE THAT FOR A POSSIBLE RUN INTO AND AFTER THAT DATE...36.95 THE BTL---35.80 THE SST WITH ANY BREAK OF 34 A POTENTIAL SHAKEOUT RIGHT BEFORE THIS CC...WE COULD TRY THE JULY 35'S AGAIN I DID FINE THERE...SWQ-GG THAT ARE NOW 3.80 AND MAYBE WE CATCH THEM MUCH CHEAPER HUH?<g>... BRCM---FROM 18.50 EARLY MAY TO 28 STRAIGHT UP...IT'S NOW IN A REVERSAL SET UP MOVING 3 BOXES LAST WEEK...I THINK 22 HOLDS AS HARD SUPPORT..IF IT GETS THERE I AM GOING LONG ALL OVER AGAIN..WE ALL KILLED THIS FOR LARGE MONEY USING THE JULY 20'S..SENSATIONAL OPTIONS TRADE...25.20 THE BTL---24.10 THE SST...24 KEEPS IT IN O'S, 28 THE CURRENT 3BXRVUP WITH 29 THE BREAKOUT BUY... KLAC---REVERSING DOWN OFF A VERY NICE RUN HERE OF LATE.. AS THE BROKERAGE HOUSES DOWNGRADE THE SEMI EQUIPMENT MAKERS THESE STOCKS INCLUDING INTC AND NVLS ETC ARE ALL CORRECTING NOW..WE HAVE THE SEMICONDUCTOR BOOK TO BILL THIS WEEK. 46.10 THE BTL---44.95 THE SST--- IBM---SOLD OFF ON SEC NEWS THAT MAY NOT EVEN BE VALID?...IT BROKE DOWN AT 84 AND THEN TOUCHED 80 RIGHT AT EXCELLENT SUPPORT AT THE BSL AT 80. IT'S BOUNCING BACK UP HERE 4 BOXES TO 84 THE HIGH OF FRIDAY...83.50 THE BTL---82.10 THE SST..IF IT TAKES OUT 79 GOODBYE CITY...TO THE DOWNSIDE USAI---FOLKS THIS STOCK HAS NOT EVEN REVERSED BACK DOWN 3 BOXES YET?...STRONG TO SAY THE LEAST HUH?...37.10 THE BTL---36.10 THE SST...NICE CHART SECTOR IS HIGH UP THERE THO...INTERNETS.. YHOO---SPEAKING OF INTERNET STOCKS, THEY LEAD THIS CHARGE UP THE HILL ALL THE WAY..THEY WERE THE FIRST SECTOR TO TURN UP AND HAVE NOT LOOKED BACK SINCE...I FULLY EXPECT THEM TO RUN UP HERE AGAIN AHEAD OF EPS...28.30 THE BTL---28.10 THE SST...27 IS THE 3BXRVDN.. AMZN---I LOVE THIS CHART FOLKS..IN FACT I'M GOING TO TAKE IT LONG USING JULY OR AUG OPTIONS. THE JULY 30'S ARE THE ZQN-GF'S AND COST $5.00 MAYBE WE GET THEM CHEAPER THIS WEEK...34.60 THE BTL---33.70 THE SST...IT'S ALREADY REVERSED DOWN 3BXES.. MRK---THIS ONE IS SO TRADABLE..I'VE WORKED IT BEFORE MANY TIMES..I HOLLERED ABOUT IT AT 55 AGAIN IN THE ROOM..HERE IT IS READY TO EXPLODE IF IT CAN GET ABOVE 60-61...59.75 THE BTL---58.50 THE SST...TAKE IT LONG IF IT BREAKS... ============================================================================================== OK SO WE HAVE A VOLATILE WEEK AHEAD...LOOK TO GRAB SOME OF THESE OPTIONS TRADES ON A PULLBACK EARLY IN THE WEEK..PLACE SOME RIDICULOUS PRICES AT THE LOW END AND SEE IF YOU GET HIT THERE...BE ALERT, STAY FOCUSED..THINK THINK THINK... HAPPY FATHERS DAY TO US ALL<G> HAVING FUN WITH THE FAMILY HERE HOPE YOU'RE ENJOYING THE NICE DAY AT YOUR HOUSE... SEE YOU ALL IN THE ROOM...""""CAN SOMEONE VERIFY IN THE ROOM ABOUT THE BOOK TO BILL THIS WEEK? THANKS... ALERT THE PASSWORD FOR THIS WEEK.....IS..........................opexweek.....one word..lower case letters... warmest regards jerry ============================================================================================== Indicator Date Time Estimate Previous Actual Country NY Empire State Index (Jun) 06/16/2003 8:00AM N/A 10.6 US Building Permits (May) 06/17/2003 8:30AM N/A 1.724M US Core CPI (May) 06/17/2003 8:30AM N/A 0.0% US CPI (May) 06/17/2003 8:30AM N/A -0.3% US Housing Starts (May) 06/17/2003 8:30AM N/A 1.630M US Capacity Utilization (May) 06/17/2003 9:15AM N/A 74.4% US Industrial Production (May) 06/17/2003 9:15AM N/A -0.5% US Current Account (Q1) 06/19/2003 8:30AM N/A -$136.9B US Initial Claims (06/14) 06/19/2003 8:30AM N/A N/A US Leading Indicators (May) 06/19/2003 10:00AM N/A 0.1% US Philadelphia Fed (Jun) 06/19/2003 12:00PM N/A -4.8 US Treasury Budget (May) 06/19/2003 2:00PM N/A -$80.6B US jerry olson www.buyitbuyitsellitsellit.com jerry.olson@verizon.net

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