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Pastimes : SARS - what next? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: skinowski who wrote (584)	6/22/2003 3:59:27 PM
From: Maurice Winn	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1070

Skinow, it wasn't really well done. Any idiot should have been able to see that it wasn't a 2% or 4% death rate. It's frightening that those in charge are so numerically illiterate. All they had to do was notice that people get sick BEFORE they die. So counting those dead and comparing that figure with the total who have become sick won't give the final death rate. They had to wait until people had either got better or died to know what the death rate would be. They had to follow a cohort of sick people. Unfortunately, that early blase attitude cost a lot of people their lives because people didn't get the frighteners put on them until it was too late for thousands of people who got sick and hundreds who died. Singapore came out of it well and Vietnam too. They acted as necessary. Dopey doctors in Canada and Taiwan get the wooden spoon and China gets the dumb authoritarian award. China only got going when the elderly politburo realized they were going to die from it and the streets of Beijing were under onslaught. Dr Urbani gets the heroic but ineffectual award - although his death was a vivid warning to all of us to take sars very, very seriously. If our world champion bug fighter came back dead, we were definitely in trouble. It was mainly the public who acted in self-preservation who stopped the disease. As well as the onset of summer which is not a good time for respiratory diseases to procreate. Now, we wait for October, the dew point, low ultraviolet light levels [I guess uv is bad for sars bugs which don't have a melanin supply] and those sneaky mutants who Henry says are lurking around the place waiting to pounce. Oh, hang on, maybe uv is GOOD for sars bugs because that's how they mutate. Mqurice