To: austrieconomist who wrote (12969 ) 6/25/2003 1:56:44 AM From: Elizabeth Andrews Respond to of 39344 I think gold is doing what they want it to do and that is to send a deflationary signal. It is correct that the classical way to create money, and thus inflation, is for the Fed to conduct open market operations. This isn't necessary right now as there's plenty of excess liquidity in the banking system. The issue is stimulating loan demand by productive businesses to create output, profits and growth, while keeping interest rates very low. If this works, gold will rise as the economy strengthens, as the loan demand will create the inflation from the liquidity that already exists in the banking system. If the Fed is unable to stimulate loan demand, gold is going lower but all other assets will fare much worse so gold will protect purchasing power better than any other asset class. So we are in a position of losing less with gold if deflation takes hold and winning. Or, winning big with gold if the Fed strategy works, which will eventually create lots of inflation and a much higher gold price. I'm betting on the later. The problem with Noland's argument about the refinancing conducted by Fannie and Freddie is that they can't leverage the loan portfolio like a bank as they have finite resources and the refinance only creates consumer spending. For example, I can refinance my house but if I use the funds to pay down my Visa card balance or other loans the process is not inflationary. It just looks like Fannie is creating money but it is actually a recycling and redistribution function and not a creation of new money or at least I don't see it. This is a different issue and is not per se inflationary. The symptom of inflation is when no citizen wants to hold a surplus of its country's currency because the goods and services are expected to cost more tomorrow. The citizen knows that the country is debasing the currency and holds all surplus cash in a different asset class, be it gold, real estate or other currencies that are not being debased as quickly. I’m now expecting a long slow rise in the price of gold, which means a long slow rise in the inflation rate in the USA. The economy has to do well for gold to rise.