Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : CFZ E-Wiggle Workspace -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Paul Shread who wrote (3390)	6/25/2003 11:25:55 AM
From: jjstingray	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 41474

No idea. I used to track the markets movement right after the announcement. What I found was that the first move is always a headfake. So if we drop 10 or 15 points on the Naz immediately afterward, there is a very high liklihood that it will rally shortly thereafter.

To: Paul Shread who wrote (3390)	6/25/2003 11:46:41 AM
From: bcrafty	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 41474

Paul - no, the morning's movements are almost always up, followed by jello from 12:00-2:15, and then the movement after that depends whether we get a "surprise" or not. Since a .50 BP has not been fully priced in yet, we might rally after a half hour decline, as in 11/01. Otherwise, if we get no surprises, then the market should be down to flat after that. However, one must remember the reaction in 5/01 where it declined into the next morning around 10:00 and then had a sharp reversal upward, a rally that lasted almost two weeks. FWIW I have been studying the movements around FOMC meetings since 10/00. Just a WAG, but IMO we're not going to go all the way to 1170 for the end of this 4.

To: Paul Shread who wrote (3390)	6/25/2003 1:34:35 PM
From: John Madarasz	Respond to of 41474

A rundown of all previous two-day FOMC meetings is shown in the table below, beginning with the last day of the meeting and followed by the performance of the S&P over the next two weeks... S&P500 on 2nd day of two-day FOMC meetings 06/25/03...??? 01/29/03...Up day...S&P -5.3% two weeks later 06/26/02...Down day...S&P -4.7% two weeks later 01/30/02...Up day...S&P +0.4% two weeks later 06/27/01...Down day...S&P -0.2% two weeks later 01/31/01...Down day...S&P -3.7% two weeks later 06/28/00...Up day...S&P +2.8% two weeks later 02/02/00...Down day...S&P -1.5% two weeks later 06/30/99...Up day...S&P +2.7% two weeks later 02/03/99...Up day...S&P -2.7% two weeks later 07/01/98...Up day...S&P +3.1% two weeks later 02/04/98...Up day...S&P +2.1% two weeks later 07/02/97...Up day...S&P +3.0% two weeks later 02/05/97...Down day...S&P +3.1% two weeks later 07/03/96...Down day...S&P -4.3% two weeks later 01/31/96...Up day...S&P +3.1% two weeks later Since 1996, this setup has batted 80% accurate in terms of calling the market's direction over the next two weeks astrikos.com...used woth permission