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To: Perspective who wrote (76689)	6/26/2003 1:59:01 PM
From: Joseph Silent	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 209892

Bob ... your response was very good and crisp, but I have to reply. :) My technical (trading & market, I mean) skills are nowhere near your excellent skills --- so please take this in the spirt in which it is intended ..... half in seriousness, half in jest, and half in drunken stupor. :) 1. Do not enter into long-term bull trades; any bull trades must be short-term. I would be surprised if anyone on this board has a longer-term horizon than a few days, if not weeks, in this day and age. 2. Upward movement, price-wise, is probably nearly complete if not already there. There are few additional players who can be converted to the bull camp to provide additional upward price movement. Time-wise it could continue for many more months, so you don't enter put options until momentum reverses This is saying "we can't seem to find energy to take us higher but we may go up for several months anyway". 3. Prepare to fade the consensus, because if anything goes wrong, there is an enormous supply of potentially motivated sellers. You do realize that the consensus on this board is that we are going down. We are the motivated sellers. :)

To: Perspective who wrote (76689)	6/26/2003 2:07:17 PM
From: bcrafty	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 209892

bobcor, nice answer and great comments First, just so you know where I'm coming from, let me state that I don't think we're in a new bull market either and that I want to play the IT trend (few weeks-several months) whichever direction it is going. I think one of the more important comments you made (which actually echoes a comment you made last November) was Time-wise it could continue for many more months, so you don't enter put options until momentum reverses . I notice a few on this board are trying to time reversals on the daily charts to the very day of the perceived reversal which, IMO, is not the best way to play either. Your comment noted above also plays into the comment about "Be prepared to fade the consensus" (at least ST, I assume you mean) if momentum has not reversed yet and, thus there's a new consensus. Now for a question (sorry if I sound like a greenhorn here) how exactly does margin debt tell that we are not in a new bull market? If we experience a new bull sometime in the future are you implying that we will not be seeing spikes in margin debt shortly after the turn? Basically, I just didn't understand that portion of your response.