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Strategies & Market Trends : Heinz Blasnik- Views You Can Use -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Mark Adams who wrote (2737)	6/26/2003 3:59:01 PM
From: Wyätt Gwyön	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 4905

You sort of appear to be thinking 'inside the box' with your reply. Technology improvements need not be restricted to resource extraction. They may be the adoption of high strength composites (carbon nanotubes?) in place of steel, resulting lower cost transport mechanisms. Or, as Kalifornia found, painting roofs white thus reducing air condition peak demand well, technology improvements are going on all the time. just look at the improvement in mpg for autos since the 1970s. but greater efficiency at the unit level does not contradict peak oil at the macro level unless there is a tremendous reduction in macro demand. "incrementalism" does not cut it. if your idea is true, then we should be seeing a steady decline in petroleum demand. in fact the opposite is occurring. just look at at trends in global energy demand and average mpg over the past few decades. remember, it is aggregate demand that matters. this continues to grow. what is "inside the box" is the irrational faith that technology will save the day. this seems to me to be a form of magical thinking. nobody wants to think that anything could upset their high-consumption middle class American lifestyles.