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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Return to Sender who wrote (10399)	7/4/2003 3:46:08 PM
From: Donald Wennerstrom	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95541

RtS, Excellent post! Thank you for putting in words most of my own feelings about the past, present and future. Last year about this time, I was far too bullish about the recovery that was supposed to happen in the last half of the year. It didn't happen and that cost me a lot of money. Like you, my trading for the future will be very short term, until I can see a recovery that requires more capacity. IMO we will be in a "trading range" for some time to come. The next 2 to 3 tables will look at price targets and "momentum". Don

To: Return to Sender who wrote (10399)	7/4/2003 4:24:56 PM
From: Will Lyons	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95541

I have noticed that in the last few months some techs have gone up much faster than others, which implies that all techs are not alike . My question is, then, should we be looking for companies that are likely to grow in the future , i.e. flat panels for monitors and tv, LEDs, HDTV, Cameras and imaging, DVD, RF identifiers, voice activation and text to speech, dictation and translation etc, and at the equipment end the providers of tools for 300mm, MEMS, low K, copper, compound semi materials and anything else you can think of? Should not such companies fare better while we wait for the return of dot coms and other high flyers of the past?

To: Return to Sender who wrote (10399)	7/4/2003 8:11:43 PM
From: Cary Salsberg	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95541

RE: "What if technology stocks were actually valued like blue chip stocks where P/E ratios and dividends truly matter?" If my 8 were appropriately valued like blue chip stocks, then I would be concerned for far more than my stock profits and losses. I would worry that the Great Depression was returning along with the rise of the "isms" that lead to world war and the Holocaust. Most of the so-called "blue chip" stocks can't produce significantly better than average long term returns without resorting to crime or exploitation. They don't have mechanisms like Moore's Law. I don't know how low tech stocks can go, but I believe the risk/reward for them decreases over time as we move away from the bubble peak. I have said it before. You are trading near the bottom. I believe that I will achieve much larger gains by just holding quality tech companies. Don does us all a great service by providing his tables. The least reliable numbers are this and next year's earnings estimates and the estimates for 5 year growth rates. The market in 2000 was a no-brainer (SELL DUMMIES) compared to today's market and almost nobody got it. Look at the big picture. Do you expect great things from technology in the next few years which will build on and, in many ways, dwarf current technology? I do! Do you expect semi and semi equip revenues and profits to eclipse 2000 levels in the next few years? I do! Do you expect your portfolio to grow to 3, 5 or 10 times its current value in the next few years? I do!