Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Cary Salsberg who wrote (10408)	7/4/2003 8:45:29 PM
From: Return to Sender	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95541

Cary, what I expect is to see stock prices to fall back to previous bear market low valuations before the true bottom is in. In other words no I do not expect to see your portfolio grow 3, 5 or 10 times in the next few years. Why not? Simply because I believe you are not trading your positions actively enough. Lets suppose for a minute that the NASDAQ does break out above 1686 soon and continue higher. How far would it have to go before you would think it is time to sell? I do not believe it is going to go high enough to give you a 3, 5, or 10 times your investment return in the next few years. Why? Because there is too much capacity on hand. There are too many people out of work here at a time when the majority of high tech jobs are being taken by a cheaper workforce outside of the US. Oh sure if it trades back in forth in the range a few times then you could certainly do well. I'm concerned about the future of high technology in this country. All companies will become fabless. Labor is cheaper elsewhere. Materials are cheaper elsewhere. So what does that do to employment figures here? Our workers are becoming more and more poorly qualified to compete. It costs more to employ people here even if they are capable. Our economy is heavily dependant on overpriced foreign oil. No one seems to care that the real business led economic recovery is taking place in Asia. We are by in large becoming an increasingly overweight, spoiled bunch of lazy bums accustomed to an easy life. I hope we are not looking forward to another great depression but I guarantee you it would not surprise me. We cannot live off the labor and resources of other countries forever without paying a price. Please read the historical information at the beginning of this article for some information on bear market and bull market returns: amateur-investors.com RtS