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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Cary Salsberg who wrote (10419)	7/5/2003 12:05:43 PM
From: KMcKlendin	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95487

Somewhat OT Cary-- Since 1996 I have observed that your predictions have been correct far more than chance would dictate. Therefore you are either very good or very lucky. IMHO your arguments are insightful and internally consistent, so I presume that you performance reflects skill. It seems to me that a discussion of "the true suppliers of picks and shovels" should include optical networking companies. 1. The growth of the Internet is critical to the fortunes of the semis and semi equips. Bandwidth is the speed bottleneck for many applications, so demand for leading edge semiconductor technology, and development of 'killer apps' depends on increasing bandwidth. 2. Data indicates that Internet traffic continues to double every year. This exponential growth has powerful implications for the companies that enable it. 3. Wave division multiplexing and photonic switching increase bandwidth in a manner analogous to Moore's law. There appear to be important differences, as telecoms have so far been unable deliver this potential to the masses. Plans have recently been announced to build fiber to the home. I don't know as much about the optical networking industry as I would like. As you know, I own JDSU and GLW. If one could identify winners in the networking space I believe that such companies could compete with your 8 stocks in investment potential. --Keith