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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Return to Sender who wrote (10456)	7/6/2003 9:53:17 PM
From: Donald Wennerstrom	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95520

RtS, Based on this article there is only one thing to do. Set your alarm clock early in the morning so as soon as the pre-market opens you can place your order and commit all the cash you have been hoarding! The good times are coming just around the corner and we don't want to miss out. I know that's what I'm going to do. I mean, my goodness, "40 new or retrofitted wafer fabs are needed next year - otherwise we will have shortages!!" Now don't be late in committing your money - as soon as the market understands the true gravity of the shortages oncoming in 2004, it will be "Katy bar the door". We'll be off to the races again - we don't want to be left behind! <Fab capacity remains a question mark. At present, there appears to be enough capacity, although chip makers are scrambling to build new and advanced fabs* to meet the possible upturn.>* I didn't realize that chip makers were scrambling to build new and advanced fabs. Gottfried, when the bookings are released by SEMI on 18 July, please be prepared to note the huge increase in bookings for the semi-equips. Do you suppose some of us on this thread should send some e-mails to the likes of AMAT, KLAC, NVLS, TER and others that they better "get ready" for a huge order influx. After all, we wouldn't want them to be "blind sided" and not be prepared! I bet the sales managers of these companies would be most appreciative of our input - it will allow them time to get their "order book" and write down these orders. You know, I could go on and on, but you get the idea. The situation is critical out there in semi land and nobody is listening.:) Don

To: Return to Sender who wrote (10456)	7/7/2003 12:18:26 AM
From: Cary Salsberg	Respond to of 95520

RE: "Only one stock is a long term buy at these prices?" My buy range for NVLS was $25 - $37.50, so NVLS is a long term buy at current prices. KLAC is above the top of my range, $37.50. Of course, if I hadn't bought all that I have budgeted for, I would need to decide on today's prices.

To: Return to Sender who wrote (10456)	7/7/2003 12:39:30 AM
From: The Ox	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 95520

Obviously, VLSI is seeing a different future than many other industry trackers. I thought VLSI just revised downward their 2003+2004 IC growth expectations a month or 2 ago? I'll see if I can't dig up the press release I am referring to. Similarly, I don't remember seeing anyone else expect a 22.5% jump in IC sales in 2004. If my memory serves me, I remember seeing 2004 IC sales expectations come DOWN from the mid-teens, unless it was SCE sales growth expectations that have come down. Fab capacity has been running relatively light, with the exception of the leading edge segments, so we should assume that much of the initial increase (if it is to happen the VLSI sees it) could be absorbed by more efficiently running fabs. One thing we should ignore is the articles comments about chip makers "scrambling to build new and advanced fabs". If this were the case, we'd have much better visibility from the AMAT's and the NVLS's of the world. RtS, I would caution you and Don about taking the data provided by analysts and using it as your benchmarks. Clearly they were very wrong at this time last year, they were very wrong in Sept/Oct of last year and they were very wrong at almost every juncture during this downturn. To hang your hat on their predictions of future eps or their movements in their ratings is a major mistake. They are clearly clueless and appear much more like a bunch of lemmings then independent thinkers. As to the comments made by Will and Cary this weekend, I would only add that the better run small cap companies are much more likely to appreciate in price than the majors. While Cary is right that they are a bit more of a risk, they also offer a substantially better return if the industry is going to see a rebound. For XLNX to go up 400% with the hefty price to sales ratio they sport seems a major chore. For some of the smaller companies that are trading at a P/S of 2 or less, a rebound will propel their stock prices much higher in a shorter period of time. Cary is correct that the barriers to entry on some of these small companies' niches make them more vulnerable than their large cap counterparts, the opposite is their potential to return a 400% gain is substantially higher. Risk vs reward. Nothing wrong with safety in investing but those who can afford to be more risk tolerant may find the end results more rewarding with certain small cap players. Finally, as for who would go long a SCE company, you could count me in the group who would consider buying some of these companies at the current level. While I usually focus on small caps and have a relatively shorter time frame then your standard "buy and hold" investor, if that was the approach I chose to take, I could see starting long positions in this sector at this time. I wouldn't "shoot my wad" at this stage, since we've seen the group appreciate substantially over the last 9 months but I could see establishing new positions now. I would keep plenty of dry powder to use on any downturn or to use in an average up if the sector continues to appreciate over the summer. Basically, I'm a practical optimist and I think things are going to get better for the US economy over the next few years. We are starting to see these improvements already. While I don't believe it's going to be a quick rebound, and there may be plenty of false starts by the stock market, overall I think we should see improvements across the board in the US economy going forward. I think this will be seen more so in hindsight then can be viewed from the data we have available now. One last comment, I think one needs to be very careful about confusing the goals of investing and trading. To me these are different concepts, kind of like going to the store, buying a green pepper and eating it tonight or planting some seeds in your garden, growing them from scratch and eating the fruits of your labor down the road. These different tasks, investing and trading, require different sets of skills. One is fairly easy and the other is relatively hard. I'll leave it to the reader to determine which is which! ;) jmo, mh