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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: The Ox who wrote (10463)	7/7/2003 1:17:47 AM
From: Cary Salsberg	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95520

RE: "I would only add that the better run small cap companies are much more likely to appreciate in price than the majors." In the technology sphere, I strongly disagree. Of course, if you define "better run", with hindsight, as the ones that "appreciated in price", you are correct. Without hindsight and without identifying specific sustainable competitive advantages, the "better run" small cap technology companies are much more likely to be out of business in 5 years or be in a no growth or slow growth survival mode with little prospect for stock price improvement. In the non-technology sphere, historical statistics support your contention.

To: The Ox who wrote (10463)	7/7/2003 8:59:10 AM
From: Return to Sender	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95520

From Briefing.com: CMOS Credence denies reports of NPTest negotiations (8.81) Co denies published reports that it is negotiating with Schlumberger (SLB),Francisco Partners and Shah Management to acquire NPTest. Credence also stated that it has no intention to enter into negotiations to acquire NPTest or its assets. Prudential starts Cymer and ASM with Hold ratings Prudential initiates coverage of CYMI (target $36) and ASML (target $9) with Hold ratings, saying the lithography sector could underperform in the near-term due to significant reuse of the installed base of 248nm scanners until there is capacity expansion by new fab projects. Semi Equips seen outperforming over next two weeks Goldman Sachs believes that Semiconductor Equipment stocks could outperform over the next two weeks as the market anticipates/reacts to what firm expect to be an upbeat Semicon West trade show that begins July 14th. 7:26AM Cirrus Logic appoints new CFO, sees Q1 revs at low end (CRUS) 4.62: Co announces resignation of Steven D. Overly, Chief Financial Officer and General Counselfor, for personal reasons, and appoints W. Kirk Patterson as acting CFO. Co also says it expects Q1 revs to come in at the low end of previous revenue guidance. 7:25AM Alcatel wins order to deliver 1 mln broadband DSL lines in China (ALA) 9.00: 7:09AM ATI mentioned favorably in Barron's article (ATYT) 10.40: Barron's article discusses the market for graphics chips, which is currently dominated by ATYT and NVDA. Despite ATYT moving firmly ahead of NVDA, an analyst in the article points to the trading disparity between the two companies with NVDA trading at 55 times forward 2004 earnings of 43 cents a share and ATYT trading at 13 times the analyst expectations of 80 cents a share for FY04 ending in August. Despite concerns over the introduction of the more inexpensive integrated graphics chipset vs its "discrete" graphics chips, the analyst believes the co ATI can make a profit of $10 on a $30 chipset. In addition, the analyst also believes ATYT has surpassed NVDA for MSFT's choice for its graphics in the XBox2. 6:32AM European Summary : European markets showing solid gains after a flattish session on Friday. Metals companies finding bid after Alcan (AL), the world's second-biggest aluminum producer, offered to buy Pechiney, the fourth-biggest. Infineon Technologies AG (IFX), Europe's second-largest semiconductor company posting strong gains after J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. raised its fair value estimate for the stock. Ahold (AHO) down after the Dutch public prosecutor kicked off a criminal investigation into possible falsification of accounts... UK +1.08%, France +2.5%, Germany +2.2%. finance.yahoo.com What stock would you buy at today's prices as a long term buy and hold? RtS

To: The Ox who wrote (10463)	7/8/2003 9:50:22 AM
From: The Ox	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95520

This is more in line with my expectations. Not as bullish as the VLSI predictions of 22.5% growth: IC Insights lowers IC forecast, but ups unit outlook By Mark LaPedus Semiconductor Business News (07/07/03 08:07 p.m. EST) SCOTTSDALE, Ariz. -- IC Insights Inc. today (July 7) slightly lowered its semiconductor forecast for 2003, but it also raised its outlook for unit shipments for the year. IC Insights originally projected that the worldwide semiconductor market would grow 15 percent in 2003 over 2002 (see Oct. 22, 2002 story ). But now, the Scottsdale-based research firm believes the market will reach $136.4 billion in terms of sales in 2003, a 13 percent growth rate over 2002. Worldwide IC unit shipments are expected to reach 90.3 billion in 2003, surpassing the previous record of 86.5 billion registered in the boom year of 2000, according to a report from IC Insights. IC units are expected to grow 15 percent in 2003 over 2002, according to the report. This is an increase of 4 percentage points from IC Insights' previous 2003 IC unit volume forecast of 11 percent growth. Although IC unit volume shipments are forecast to set new records in 2003, IC dollar volume sales this year are still expected to fall far short of the all-time high of $176.9 billion set in 2000. IC unit volume shipments are forecast to grow at 15 percent in 2004. IC Insights forecasts that 2004 IC unit volume shipments will exceed 100.0 billion to set another all-time record high.