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To: the-phoenix who wrote (3650)	7/7/2003 3:48:07 PM
From: The Freep	Respond to of 41499

thanks, phoenix. Sure we could use a pullback. However, I'm trying to figure out where we are in a wiggle count... and the action today since the early move up seems more like a corrective than the start of anything else. It's possible the 3 of whatever degree this is is done, of course, and we're gonna correct that. or it's possible it's not, and we get one more leg up, at least. Timing is everything <g> and I am not so good at it. the freep

To: the-phoenix who wrote (3650)	7/7/2003 3:48:48 PM
From: John Madarasz	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 41499

MNX P/C ratio was HUGE last Thursday...those guys are hardly ever wrong...this mkt seems to defy all odds... volume doesn't seem that light finance.yahoo.com^TV.O&d=c&t=5d&l=on&z=b&q=l Since MNX options began trading, there have been 18 days in which total put volume came in better than four times total call volume. In every case but two the Nasdaq posted a lower close within two sessions... 07/03/03 MNX p/c 20.19... ??? 06/25/03 MNX p/c 4.97... No lower close within two days 05/22/03 MNX p/c 6.36... Nasdaq -0.1% one day later 03/28/03 MNX p/c 4.66... Nasdaq -2.7% one day later 08/21/02 MNX p/c 6.61... Nasdaq -2.4% two days later 05/31/02 MNX p/c 4.96... Nasdaq -4.1% one day later 04/09/02 MNX p/c 5.43... Nasdaq -1.5% two days later 02/06/02 MNX p/c 4.99... Nasdaq -2.2% one day later 01/22/02 MNX p/c 4.64... No lower close within two days 12/28/01 MNX p/c 8.85... Nasdaq -2.7% one day later 12/21/01 MNX p/c 9.04... Nasdaq -0.1% one day later 11/26/01 MNX p/c 6.31... Nasdaq -0.6% one day later 08/31/01 MNX p/c 4.53... Nasdaq -3.1% one day later 06/29/01 MNX p/c 6.67... Nasdaq -0.3% one day later 05/25/01 MNX p/c 14.23... Nasdaq -4.4% one day later 05/08/01 MNX p/c 4.74... Nasdaq -2.7% one day later 03/15/01 MNX p/c 4.36... Nasdaq -3.0% one day later 01/30/01 MNX p/c 33.90... Nasdaq -3.5% one day later 10/24/00 MNX p/c 4.84... Nasdaq -7.3% one day later MNX (Mini Nasdaq) Put/Call Ratio. The put/call ratio divides total put volume by total call volume. Traders of MNX options seem to have a knack for determining short-term tops and bottoms in the Nasdaq. Keep an eye out for readings above 3.0, which signals heavy put volume. Such a reading generally precedes a short-term selloff in the NDX. Similarly, keep an eye out for readings under 0.50, indicating unusally heavy call volume. A short-term rally will generally begin soon thereafter. Note that there's only a limited amount of historical data available for MNX options astrikos.com

To: the-phoenix who wrote (3650)	7/7/2003 8:11:02 PM
From: ajtj99	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 41499

If we do get a pullback, I'm not looking for more than 20 or so NDX points at the most, and probably more like 10 NDX points. If you take the move up from 1180 to 1250 as wave 1, and the drop to 1228 as wave 2, a 1.618 extension gives you a 1341 NDX target for wave 3 up. If that's the case, a pullback of 22 points for wave 4 would give us 1319 NDX, and a truncated 5th wave up would get us to NDX 1362 (.618 x 70). Either way, I think this move has more room on the upside. Look at the 5th leg up from the end of November to the Dec. 2 top and the wave 1 up from the March 12 lows. Both were 8-days (a fib). I think we could be looking at a similar situation here for this wave 5 up off the NDX 1180 lows. If that's the case, our high would come Friday, and we'd dump into next week's options expiration.