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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: gumnam who wrote (35906)	7/9/2003 10:06:00 PM
From: TobagoJack	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

Hi Gumnam, I figure at some point Argentine stocks will be a buy again, perhaps after NYSE starts tanking again as it should. On the commodity currencies, I am holding on for dear life, feeling the energy drain out of me and I am still committed to the Script. I am very nervous, and am ready to panick along with the rest of the routed troops. Chugs, Jay

To: gumnam who wrote (35906)	7/9/2003 10:08:55 PM
From: EL KABONG!!!	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

gumnam, The risk is that if the big money managers of the world decide that US growth fiction is true, this retreat will become a rout. Excellent observation... Of course, there are those folks that have clearly decided that a rout is already underway. I look for more of the hedge funds to start vacating their gold positions here shortly. Just a guess on my part, but many of the hedge funds seem to have the same herd mentality, so a quick drop in value is not out of the question... KJC

To: gumnam who wrote (35906)	7/9/2003 10:36:25 PM
From: AC Flyer	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 74559

>>if the big money managers of the world decide that US growth fiction is true<< "US growth fiction"....fiction....!!! What is it about the human brain that insists on projecting all trends linearly to infinity? We have had three years of recession and slow growth and a major correction in the stock market. Bonds have grown to the sky. So...why is it so hard to believe that next come recovery and growth, as they always have? Laggards will have missed a 40% move in the Nasdaq and maybe 30% in the S&P by year-end. Easy money. More of the same next year, maybe another 30%. News flash. The bust of 2001 (as defined by this thread) has been postponed. Until perhaps 2009 at the earliest, maybe as late as 2011 or 2012. No housing bust 'til then either. You won't believe where the Nasdaq and S&P will be in 2010, so I won't tell you (maybe if you ask nicely).