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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: AC Flyer who wrote (35914)	7/9/2003 11:31:38 PM
From: Cogito Ergo Sum	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

Hi AC, So how does inflation fit into your scenario ? regards ever ready to change stance and hedge my bets .. Kastel

To: AC Flyer who wrote (35914)	7/10/2003 5:54:06 AM
From: jrhana	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

<You won't believe where the Nasdaq and S&P will be in 2010, so I won't tell you (maybe if you ask nicely).> Would you be so very kind as to tell us where they will be in 2010. I would be extremely grateful if you could add the Dow. Thanks in Advance

To: AC Flyer who wrote (35914)	7/10/2003 6:08:04 PM
From: gumnam	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

Hi AC You are absolutely right - people do tend to use linear extrapolation way too often in life and in markets. Just like you said that " Laggards will have missed a 40% move in Nasdaq and maybe 30% in S&P by year end". YTD Nasdaq is up 25% (roughly) and S&P is up 15%- So you projected another 15% in Nasdaq and 15% in S&P till year end. That is just another example of linear interpolation. And then you project this line all the way to 2009 maybe 2012. WOW 6-9 more years of projections. That is quite incredible. I do not know "What is it about human brain that insists on projecting all trends linearly to infinity". Cheers Anshu