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Strategies & Market Trends : VOLTAIRE'S PORCH-MODERATED -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Murrey Walker who wrote (58603)	7/10/2003 11:43:03 AM
From: elpolvo	Respond to of 65232

mw- Dustball, you doing anything with Mr. Market? just watching, wondering what's holding it up. i'm afraid to short it... what if bush's popularity keeps sliding and he loses the election next year? ...i'd be ruined. ;-) again. <g> -db

To: Murrey Walker who wrote (58603)	7/10/2003 7:13:47 PM
From: Sully-	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 65232

Thanks Murrey. Today JNPR reported numbers similar to YHOO's from yesterday (essentially met estimates & guided in line with a range slightly above & slightly below current estimates). It is taking a beating in AH. IMO, it's because it has, like most equities, ramped up for months & was priced for perfection. However forward guidance was tepid at best (I.E. no blue skies ahead or anything close to that). Jobless numbers increased again, I believe for the 4th time in the last 5 weeks. The number was once again worse than expected (439K). It's been well above 400K for months & it needs to fall well below 400K for employment to begin growing in the US. Above 400K means unemployment is growing. ABT reported numbers in line & guided down going forward. DSS guided Q1 below consensus. PWAV missed by $0.05. Retail sales for last month were OK (with many below estimates) & several big retailers pre-announced lowered guidance (Target, Kohl's & JC Penney). And yes there were a number of in line or slightly above reports & some guided in line or slightly above going forward today. However, I didn't see any of them blow away numbers & announce that economic conditions were improving or that IT spending or Cap Ex was improving. That's what one would expect if we were going to see the 3.5% GDP growth projected in the 2nd half of the year. That's what we absolutely needed to justify the recent ramping in equities prices. And that's not what we are seeing reported even in individual sectors or by a couple of corporate giants. In fact, I don't see anyone claiming blue skies ahead. "so RR is going to continue to play these swings and come out smelling like some of his roses!" Yup! For all my bitching & moaning, for all my continued bearishness & fighting the trend, RR has done quite well & I have been getting my head handed to me. I may eventually be proven right in my overall analysis, but it has not helped my bottom line one bit over the last few months. OOF :-\|