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Strategies & Market Trends : VOLTAIRE'S PORCH-MODERATED -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Sully- who wrote (58605)	7/11/2003 8:09:28 AM
From: Murrey Walker	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 65232

I wish I could find a flaw in your argument, Tim but unfortunately I can't. Cash (And real estate) continues to be my safe haven.

To: Sully- who wrote (58605)	7/11/2003 11:09:47 AM
From: lurqer	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 65232

If one is only going to be making short term trades why worry about whether the markets overall intermediate trend is Bullish or Bearish? I think there are two reasons. First, if you have the market bias correct, you can use the market bias to bias your trades - both to increase profits and minimize loses. More than once, I've been rescued from a bad trade, because I had the market direction correct. A second reason is indicator bias. Many of the indicators I use, have differing "trigger" values in bull or bear markets. So you are bearish and RR is bullish (surprise <g>). Maybe just inherent contrariness, but I disagree. Current valuations combined with data like you have so kindly presented (IMO) cap the upside. Even a glance at this past year’s charts exhibit the power of massive liquidity to limit the downside. Given that at about this same stage in the deflation of the Japanese bubble, massive liquidity resulted in an eight year sideways market, one could argue for a similar result for our markets. So, depending upon perspective, you could say either I differ from both you and RR or I’m just somewhere between you two. <g> In any event – Good Luck! lurqer