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Strategies & Market Trends : VOLTAIRE'S PORCH-MODERATED -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: lurqer who wrote (58613)	7/11/2003 9:40:02 PM
From: Sully-	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 65232

I tend to see the forest not focus on a tree here & there. I also tend to be stubborn & stick to my convictions, thus taking lumps when fighting trends that are going against my view of the forest. IMO, I think I tend to discount certain sectors of the forest & let the overall view guide me - a mistake in trading for sure. It's tough when indicator after indicator flashes red & only a scant green one lights up from time to time. I analyze that info & can see the trouble that is brewing. I figure that most reasonable folks will also react similarly, particularly as the market kept going up month after month in face of ever increasing danger signals. Sooner or later indicators needed to be green far more often to justify the relentless market ramp or something had to correct this clear disconnect between the market & overall economic performance. It's not like I went from perma-bull (during the bubble years) to perma-bear (during the ensuing bear market) or anything. I tried to learn to play it both ways while observing the macro environment for direction. Obviously my trading is more complicated than what I described, but that is the macro view that I employ. Obviously I have been quite wrong for several months. Unfortunately, nothing has changed my POV about the disconnect between the market, ballooning P/E's & the overall economic environment going forward.

To: lurqer who wrote (58613)	7/12/2003 12:58:26 PM
From: Dealer	Respond to of 65232

If one is only going to be making short term trades why worry about whether the markets overall intermediate trend is Bullish or Bearish? I am finding this to be so true.....lately. Half the time I don't even pay attention to what the overall market is doing. Maybe I should....:-) dealie

To: lurqer who wrote (58613)	7/13/2003 10:37:38 AM
From: RR	Respond to of 65232

Morning Lurqer! It depends on the time frame with regard to whether one is bearish or bullish. <<If one is only going to be making short term trades why worry about whether the markets overall intermediate trend is Bullish or Bearish?>> I agree completely. I said weeks ago that I was bullish short term, bearish mid-term (I called it the summer hum-drums), and bullish long term. Way too often, people forget the time frame. I see it often when folks are discussing charts. Looking at a 15/30 min chart and forecasting long term? Wrong.... I don't let the "noise" bother me when I'm investing short or intermediate term. RR