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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Proud_Infidel who wrote (10543)	7/11/2003 11:19:56 AM
From: Pink Minion	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 95487

The industry is kind of different than 25 years ago. I just look at factual data from the past 8 years. When Moore's Law allows for new products that make up 60 percent of the market it's great. It has to to soak the added supply. No way can demand growth match the "doubling of supply (transistors) every 18 months." This means the other half of the industry gets crushed from the Law. And this Law doesn't even account for the added supply from larger wafers and overspending by foreign countries. No one can deny chips will be everywhere and will continue to grow. But it's still supply vs demand. The days of the $800 mass market chip is over and the ASP of all chips will continue to decline. If you draw a line at the bottom of the semi sales charts, should show the long term growth rate. If it breaks that trend look out. What exactly is your investment style anyway and what do you see for the future? I trade this industry and as much time you all spend following it should also trade it. I was married to it from 1995-2000 and learned that the hard way. The future? I think we're in a massive credit bubble that makes the internut and telecom bubble look like pimples. Greenspan will go down as the most moronic chairman in history. Market moves seems senseless to me, thus either I'm an idiot or I need to think like one.