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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: ild who wrote (192)	7/14/2003 11:44:39 AM
From: Ramsey Su	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 110194

MTG and the MI companies are obviously, a little difficult for the masses to understand. MTG should be down 10 points on today's news. What I was more interested in was the state of the real estate market. It is quite clear that deliquencies are rising and the cure rate falling. When I was in the real estate business, the cure rate was practically zero, so the MI companies simply pay the entire claims. If you have not listened to the cc, try to catch the replay if available. Now on to BAC. biz.yahoo.com Mortgage related revenue skyrocketed. So that is going to stay at this level indefinitely? You can draw your own conclusion. Ramsey

To: ild who wrote (192)	7/16/2003 11:58:18 AM
From: russwinter	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

Added to my MTG short at 55 and change and got a RDN short off at 44 and change this AM. Strength doesn't make much sense. Shorted more MER yesterday at 53.91. Not a real big break yet (other than CFC) considering the big backup in rates. Unlimited faith in Easy Al apparently? When I watched some of his comments yesterday I swore he looked and acted like at stroke victim, but what do I know?

To: ild who wrote (192)	7/19/2003 12:55:02 PM
From: Wyätt Gwyön	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 110194

What is going to happen when RE will start sagging? Templeton saying RE drop could cause 20% nonperforming mortgages in Equities mag interview, according to CI. mentions possible 90% price drops! sounds farfetched, but one thing to consider is the US will at some point require a massive devaluation of currency to close C/A deficit and maintain competitiveness in global capital mosh pit versus Chinese factory workers working for $10 a day or less ($4 a day according to "The Dollar Crisis", which strikes me as somewhat dubious in an economy w/supposed $4500 percapita GDP). likewise Japan needs a massive devaluation to be competitive and put its idle capacity to use. perhaps Germany as well with their world-leading wages, but don't know enough about them. all in all, it seems like a race to the bottom will begin in earnest at some point.