To: Baton who wrote (12954 ) 12/11/2003 10:14:28 AM From: Bucky Katt Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 48463 This is a perfect example of why I never trust the GDP numbers> (I'll trade the short term with the herd, but I know what time it is)GDP revision bumps up the date of recession Advertisement December 11, 2003 WASHINGTON -- The arbiter of U.S. business cycles said Wednesday it may review the date and duration of the 2001 recession after the government revealed the economy shrank in 2000, months earlier than previously thought. The National Bureau of Economic Research said revisions to the government's gross domestic product data, contained in the National Income and Product Accounts, offered a good opportunity to possibly change the measurement of the last recession. The bureau's Business Cycle Dating Committee has already ruled the downturn began in March 2001 and ended in November 2001. But changes to economic data by the Commerce Department now show the economy first contracted in the third quarter of 2000, rather than the first quarter of 2001. Based on new data, the government said the GDP, the country's total output of goods and services, shrank by an annual rate of 0.5 percent in the July-September quarter of 2000. Previously, the government had said GDP was rising weakly at a rate of 0.6 percent during that quarter. The GDP returned to positive territory in the October-December quarter of 2000, rising at a rate of 2.1 percent, before slipping back into negative territory in the first quarter of 2001. The first, second, and third quarters of 2001 all experienced falling GDP as the country slogged through its first recession since 1990-91. Even before the revisions, the GDP data showed that the economy hit a brick wall in the summer of 2000, after the stock market bubble burst.