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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Maurice Winn who wrote (106723)	7/20/2003 9:50:06 PM
From: Hawkmoon	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 281500

The chances of Pakistan giving a nuke to Islamic Jihad are high. I would concur, if Musharaf were to be ousted from power and some of the more religious militants were to take over. That's why I accept the "kid's gloves" approach we're taking with regard to pressing for capture of Osama Bin Laden. Musharraf's regime, although not particularly democratic, is preferable to a militant theocracy possessing nukes. Were this occur, I see it being very likely to create an immediate level of tension between Pakistan and India that would likely lead to open conflict between these nuclear powers. And none of us would like to see that. North Korea is so easy to handle. They aren't really a threat to the USA. China and South Korea and Japan have much more to worry about from them. They'll ensure North Korea stays in their cage. We shouldn't let a silly movie create paranoia. I concur. Which is why all talks with N. Korea must be multi-lateral, with China and the US playing mediators. And I just find my jaw dropping at how the Democrats are trying to build N. Korea up into some major threat to the US. The only threat is that we would be required to jump to S. Korea's defense. But we wouldn't be alone, and I'm sure Japan would also commit forces (they recently announced they are building two aircraft carriers, the first since WWII, in order to support potential amphibious operations). The result would be a N. Korean defeat, but a devastated S. Korea. I just hope some of the more cynical Japanese strategists wouldn't find S. Korea's economic ruin to be advantageous to their own position in the region. I'm sure China must be stirring the North Koreans up to give the USA something to chew on. I would if I had the USA constantly threatening me, calling me a strategic competitor [all nations are strategic competitors] and rattling dirty great aircraft carrier fleets in my face. I see just the opposite. Were China to be discovered to be encouraging Kim Jong Il, it would immediately endanger their trade relationship with the US (which amount to over approx $100+ Billion). US-China trade DIRECTLY translates into some 100-200 million Chinese jobs and continuing GDP growth. Risking that would be to create the conditions for growing domestic displeasure and calls for political change in Bejing. Note recent events in Hong Kong that could easily be repeated in Bejing and Shanghai. Apart from Taiwan and internal human rights, China seems as benign as can be. Have you forgotten the million man army they maintain in Tibet? newstrolls.com China is still ruled by a Communist elite, who enjoy a position of privilege and authority denied to many Chinese. In fact, it more resembles a Fascist state, where a centralized political elite control a capitalist private sector. It will be interesting to see if political power can gradually be transferred to the people, to whom all politicians should be accountable, via an election mechanism that is credible. I hope China doesn't have to experience the same pain that has occurred in the prior Soviet Union. Hawk