To: TigerPaw who wrote (22827 ) 7/21/2003 11:46:25 AM From: jlallen Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 89467 Caterwauling at Bush Risks Historic Opportunity Toppling Saddam moderated the Middle East. BY ROBERT L. BARTLEY Monday, July 21, 2003 12:01 a.m. EDT A sane world would recognize, and eventually maybe even this one will, that the most important Iraqi development of the last week or so was the formation of the 25-person Governing Council. While of course still tenuous, it represents the first step toward a pluralistic Iraqi government, and toward consolidating the huge geopolitical gains President Bush won by toppling the Saddam's murderous regime. Political and press rhetoric in the current world, of course, is instead consumed by the revelation that intelligence analysts sifting ambiguous reports sometimes disagree. Desperate Democratic presidential candidates and the neurotic anti-Vietnam left take the intelligence controversy as the latest excuse for belittling the president's military victory. Serious people need to understand what this carping puts at risk. To start with Iraq itself, the assassination of pro-American Iraqi leaders is an unmistakable sign of classic guerrilla war. But guerrillas are far from invincible. Vietnam begs to be understood: After more than 15 years of guerrilla fighting, the North Vietnamese victory required a conventional invasion by 20 tank-led divisions. The 1968 Tet offensive is now recognized as a huge Communist defeat on the military front, remember, though it became a political defeat on the U.S. homefront because of misreporting by the press and the public relations blunder of not warning the public. We should have learned by now that anti-guerrilla tactics have two keys: Deny your opponents a sanctuary, and protect the local population that casts its lot with your side. For the first, Joint Chiefs chairman Richard Myers reports that 90% of the guerrilla incidents are in the a small area of Iraq, the "Sunni triangle" bounded by Baghdad, Tikrit and Ar Ramadi. This is a heartland refuge for Baath Party remnants and perhaps even Saddam Hussein himself, but it is easily isolated from outside support (see map). As for local security, this is where the Governing Council comes in. We will need Iraqi "ownership" of nation-building, and also an Iraqi security force for intelligence and local protection. A brigade of Ahmed Chalabi's Free Iraqi Forces, trained by U.S. Special Forces, proved itself in quickly pacifying the town of Shatra in southern Iraq in April. For its efforts the FIF was disbanded by edict of the U.S. command, which also postponed forming an Iraqi governing body. Appointment of a Governing Council means the U.S. waking up to reality. To all of this the rest of the Arab world has been reacting. Amr Moussa, secretary-general of the Arab league, put out a statement saying that if the Governing Council had been elected "it would have gained much power and credibility." On the one hand this is ludicrous, since for all its shortcomings the council is more pluralistic than all but a few of the League's 21 governments. On the other hand, holding up elections as a test is something significantly new in the Arab world.Since the fall of Saddam, the entire Middle East has been inching in more hopeful directions. Iran, far from gobbling up Iraq, has been busy trying to suppress its own pro-democratic student demonstrations. The Baathist leadership of Syria is curbing its anti-American image, and has actually abandoned artillery and tank positions in Northern Lebanon, moving troops from near Beirut back toward its own border. For its part, Lebanon has arrested two sets of terrorists planning the kidnapping of the U.S. ambassador and bombing attacks on local outlets of Dominos and Hardees. Meanwhile, leaders of Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Jordan and Bahrain met with President Bush to call terrorism a "plague"; they pledged to stop the flow of money to terrorist organizations, for the first time including Hamas and Hezbollah. Progress does not always follow a straight line. The defeat of liberals in Kuwaiti elections was not a good sign, though the appointment of a new prime minister affirms the prospect of further reform. The editor of the Saudi Arabian newspaper Al-Watan, Jamal Khashoggi, was dismissed for reformist articles and cartoons. But Arnaud de Borchgrave reports in the Washington Times that the royal family is starting to restrain the preaching of the Wahhabi clergy. The liberalizing trends come to a head, of course, with the Israel-Palestine issue, which also shows a rare if faint ray of hope. Terrorism declined in Israel after the most militant Palestinian groups bowed to pressure from Arab leaders to proclaim a temporary cease-fire. Prime Minister Ariel Sharon has started to dismantle wildcat settlements on the West Bank and met with Prime Minister Mahmoud Abbas yesterday to talk about further release of prisoners. Mr. Abbas assumed his share of the leadership after President Bush acted to discredit Yasser Arafat, a leader dedicated to revolution rather than the welfare of the Palestinian people. After meeting with his Israeli counterpart, Prime Minister Abbas will tour other Arab states before meeting with President Bush on Friday. The president will meet with Prime Minister Sharon four days later. Clearly, these next weeks are crucial for Mr. Bush's "road map" to peace. Clearly too, in advancing his road map President Bush will need all the power and prestige he can muster. Foolish caterwauling about obscure intelligence disputes can only undermine his standing and authority. In reaching for ways to denigrate the president's military victory, the critics risk undermining the historic opportunity that victory has forged. Mr. Bartley is editor emeritus of The Wall Street Journal. His column appears Mondays in the Journal and on OpinionJournal.com. URL:http://www.opinionjournal.com/columnists/rbartley/?id=110003776