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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: GST who wrote (107559)	7/24/2003 12:15:27 AM
From: Hawkmoon	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 281500

and you think somebody else is going to come along and bail us out. How weak. So now you're a fighter, not a talker, eh? Big tough guy, huh? You need to learn some lessons about the nature of power GST. One application is in discerning out what your enemies fear most and using that against them. But the principle works just as well with our rivals and "allies", especially if they fear an escalation that will disrupt their economies. The Chinese fear a confrontation because they don't want 20 million N Korean refugees streaming across the border. And they probably fear that Kim will later attempt extract concession of them, should he develop nuclear weapons. The Russians fear pretty much the same thing, since it will destablize the entire region. But they are like us, peripherial players in the North-South Korean civil war. The Russians, under Stalin, supported the North.. So they have those continuing ties with N. Korea. And they probably don't desire N. Korea putting Nukes in the hands of muslim militants (chechens?) anymore than we do... So why aren't they stepping up to the plate when it comes to persuading NK to engage in multi-lateral negotiation? Probably an attempt to make Bush sweat. And why isn't Bush going into Liberia? To make the UN sweat... We're going to be "cutting some deals", IMO, over the coming weeks.. And these won't just be one-sided deals that are not in the favor of the US. Afterall, the US can permit the situation to escalate, just like Kim Jong Il can... Let the rest of the world perceive that Bush and Kim are equally "crazy"... As the tension mounts, other nations will insist on making some progress... But if Bush just went running to Kim to cave in to blackmail, you can be sure that this would get uglier later on.. I don't know all the "angles" being worked, but the overall sense is that Bush is telling these other nations in the region: "Don't push me with regard to N. Korea.. I've made some VERY reasonable requests for multi-lateral talks and been rejected and threatened at every step... I'm not backing down, because I shouldn't have to when I'm in the right according to internatonal treaties".. Hawk