Man, this is one screwy market. Seems like evry little pop the last 2 weeks is met with immediate selling. Pretty big short term, midday swings up and down.
2 things to take into consideration we haven't really discussed.
A) I hope I am wrong, but I do believe another terrorist attack, maybe of big proportions, is going to happen. Sept 11, should serve notice that that was only the beginning, and it could be any month, week or day, before we are struck hard here in our own homeland. THis will cause a far bigger sell off, IMO, then sept 11. Opinions??
B) I hear we just missed getting Suddham by less then 24 hours, and news reports say we may have him within a couple weeks. Well, maybe we do get him, or maybe he pulls a bin laden and just disappears. He has the money and means to disappear, thats for sure. But, what if we get news that Suddham is captured or killed? Will that not cause a nice rally?? Opinions??
Anyway, I have no idea how to figure this market. I do not think we can use history as an indicator any longer as we have always done and I dont think this market is moving up or down on fundamentals. The market has a mind of it's own and all TA/FA can be thrown out the window, IMO. Some are saying we haven't even seen the worst of the BEAR, and the worst is still ahead of us. Some say equities are fairly valued and the economy is slowly recovering and equities are a buy right now. So, all experts are divided into two, very opposite groups of "opinions".
So, how does one decipher ANYTHING in this market?
I have noticed the last 2 weeks or so that we can't seem to break above certain levels on DOW and NAZ. We had a nice run, but now it seems that every pop is met with immediate selling and we just can't break above certain levels. Is this it? Are we just sideways or down for awhile, or is there anything to fuel the rally to get dow above 10k and Naz above 1800/1900?
I dont want to miss any rallies, but then again, I dont want to be fully vested if we are going to get whacked. I dont care about a small correction...I can deal with that, but it will be very frustrating if dow and naz go into a tailspin and my portfolio is cut in half. I'm not on margin and wont use any margin, but I am fully vested, so if we do get whacked, it will be hard to buy low and average down.
But again, I am faced with the dilema of do I sell my good performers and lock in profits, even though they are great companies that have run hard and may continue to run hard, or do I risk my BEAS, FDRY, JNPR, NTAP and etc, etc dropping back 50 - 75% to old lows. And my laggards. Do I sell my laggards that are still near lows and haven't popped much, but could? I've been patient waiting this long for certain stocks to make a run, so I dont know if throwing in the towl now is the right thing to do. I remember last time I bought rfmd. I bought at $9, sold at $12, watched it go to $20 - $25, before it dropped back to $5ish, at which time I started buying again, but have watched it lag other stocks and overall averages. Part of me is saying SELL, SELL< SELL...the other part of me is saying I will be happy if I am patient with stocks such as rfmd and dont sell hastily........so, all in all, I am lost, with no idea whether to lock in profits and raise some cash ( every time I do that we rally!!) or just hold on tight, dont worry about up's and down's and worry about where stocks will be 5 years from now, and if higher, dont worry about short term drops, or trying to time the markets and buy and sell alot. Been trading for awhile and like to think I have decent knowledge, but frankly, I have never been more confused about what to do, as I am right now. Hope everybody has been well....... |
