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Strategies & Market Trends : Heinz Blasnik- Views You Can Use -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Wyätt Gwyön who wrote (3294)	7/29/2003 7:37:15 AM
From: LLCF	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 4905

"Fed Abandones Bold Relationary Measures" aei.org Dollar headed down again? upi.com DAK

To: Wyätt Gwyön who wrote (3294)	8/1/2003 2:19:57 PM
From: ild	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 4905

Date: Fri Aug 01 2003 12:21 trotsky (P.Yorkie, 10:50) ID#377387: Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved you are of course right that oil prices are really not all that high in real terms. but that imo mostly indicates that they can easily go a LOT higher. also, during the 90's, the US economy got used to extremely low prices, and at the lows ( around $12/bbl. in '98 ) the general expectation was that an alleged 'glut' of oil would take prices to $5 ( there's a now famous Economist title story containing that prediction that appeared in the very week the low was put in ) . so you have industry woefully unprepared for these higher prices ( note that after Iraq, prices were once again widely expected to fall ) , and with no-one expecting even higher prices, i'm reasonably confident that that's exactly what we're going to get. my medium term target for crude is $45/bbl., and longer term i'm looking for $60. Date: Fri Aug 01 2003 10:39 trotsky (September crude oil) ID#377387: Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved as i've mentioned before, this contract must be watched, as it is very close to breaking out to new life-of-contract highs. an energy crisis is brewing right under our noses, and nobody even TALKS about it. the alleged recovery won't only face the headwind of a collapsing refi market, it will also be stopped cold by the continued surge in energy costs. of course, mainstream economists are ALL assuring us that the 'recovery is imminent', or has in fact already begun. they generally mistake the rise in commodity prices for evidence of a recovery, while they are in reality merely evidence of a boom in CHINA.