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Strategies & Market Trends : Heinz Blasnik- Views You Can Use -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Box-By-The-Riviera™ who wrote (3331)	7/30/2003 1:15:42 PM
From: orkrious	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 4907

I wonder if heinz' letter is responsible for the relative strength in the SA miners today.

To: Box-By-The-Riviera™ who wrote (3331)	7/30/2003 1:29:35 PM
From: EL KABONG!!!	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 4907

nypost.com SOBERING ADVICE: PAY OFF YOUR CREDIT CARDS By TERRY KEENAN -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- July 20, 2003 -- AT the ripe old age of 90, Sir John Templeton is more than just a Wall Street institution. A legendary figure who racked up 38 straight years of 15 percent annual returns, Templeton is arguably the most successful global investor of the last century. Yet, unlike most other contenders for that title, Templeton managed to register his unparalleled gains while accentuating the positive in the U.S. economy and all it has to offer. In fact, those who've had the pleasure of meeting Sir John (as I have on several occasions) are routinely struck by a sunny optimism that seems at odds with his stunning intellect. Through the years this optimism has served him well. Templeton made his first big bet on U.S. stocks back in 1939 as Hitler was invading France. After the 1987 crash he plunged headlong into the U.S. stock market and stayed there throughout most of the roaring 90s. He's also on the record predicting Dow One Million by 2100. That's why Templeton's recent cautionary comments about the state of the U.S. stock and housing markets bear notice. In a recent interview with Equities Magazine, Templeton warned that not only is the U.S. stock market "broken" in his words (with years of repair perhaps still ahead), he fretted openly about what he sees as the dangerous rise in U.S. housing prices. "Every previous major bear market has been accompanied by a bear market in home prices," Sir John tells Equities. "This time home prices have gone up 20 percent and this represents a very dangerous situation," Sir John warns noting that home prices in Japan have lost more than half of their value since the stock market peak there. Granted, the Japanese experience is likely extreme, but Templeton remains perplexed about the 20 percent appreciation in U.S. home prices since the Wall Street bubble burst. "A home price decline of as little as 20 percent would put a lot of people in bankruptcy," according to Templeton, who says such a decline would likely extend the bear market in stocks as consumer confidence wanes. Not so concerned, it appears, is Templeton's fellow Knight of the British Empire Sir Alan Greenspan. In testimony before Congress this week, Greenspan marveled about the appreciation of what he now calls "housing stock" (i.e. home prices) and waxed poetic about the fact that millions of Americans are now more in debt than ever before, albeit at lower rates. In fact, as Paul Kasriel, director of economic research at Northern Trust points out in his latest report, Greenspan's comments this week took doublespeak to new highs. While Sir Alan correctly boasts that household equity continues to rise, Greenspan neglected to note that equity as a percent of the value of homes is now at a post-WWII low. A situation that leaves U.S. housing the most "leveraged it has been in the last 50 years or so," according to Kasriel. Templeton's advice for 2003? Pay down your credit card bills, sell overpriced homes and bank the profits. TERRY KEENAN is senior business correspondent and anchor of Cashin' In, an investing program that appears on Fox News Channel on Saturday mornings at 11:30. E-mail terry.keenan@foxnews.com. KJC EDIT - Nice grub...