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Strategies & Market Trends : Bob Brinker: Market Savant & Radio Host -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Lizzie Tudor who wrote (19021)	8/2/2003 3:02:23 PM
From: Rillinois	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 42834

Lizzie Tudor, Oh and you have an ultra secret indicator that works 80% of the time....I merely stated the current II numbers without opining as to their usefulness. I have not pointed to any indicator as a reason to buy or sell since my direct hit buy signal: Message 18098002 So I think you must have read a little too much into my post. Besides my proprietary "Better than Bob Brinker's timing model" timing model has more than just one indicator. <g> Investor's Intelligence is not broken. It is just one sentiment indicator and doesn't justify going "ALL IN" every time bulls reach x or bears reach y. Re: I can show you posts at the absolute bottom of the mkt (which imo as july last year)... O.K. I'll bite. Care to explain why you think July was the absolute bottom? The only index that I know of that did not make an "absolute" new low was the AMEX Composite. Is this the index you track? Whatever your explanation is, all I know is that an investor would have gotten a better entry point into the broad market following my buy signal on Oct. 10 than any signal you gave in July. Re: ...where bears on SI were screaming investors intelligence was pointing to a strong sell. Since when were bears on SI considered to be expert interpreters of II numbers and accurate market predictors? Don't blame the data just because "bears on SI" don't know how to interpret the data. Re: I'm not sure what is wrong, I think it may be too US-centric, and ignore retailers, who are essentially gone in the market and therefore represent the bear case? The retailer bears aren't counted and neither are the nonexistant foreign investors. I think you are making this too complicated. I have found that when a lot of people focus in on any one indicator, especially a sentiment indicator, that it loses it's effectiveness. Just think of it, it's not that contrarian to follow everyone else who is following and fixated on a contrarian indicator. You are a true contrarian when you use contrarian indicators that most are not fixated on or thinking don't work any longer because of this or that explanation. And usually the explanation sounds really good and even rational and that is why most people stop following the indicator. Also, it has been my experience that the indicator works a lot better at market bottoms. II doesn't have a consistently good track record at flagging market tops. Best Regards. Rillinois