And this is interesting:
Shi'ites raise new battle cry
By Hooman Peimani
Contrary to US hopes, the killing of Saddam Hussein's sons has not helped curb attacks on the US troops occupying Iraq. The Americans therefore should be concerned about a seeming increase in such attacks, which they attribute to "pro-Saddam forces". However, the growing radicalization of Iraqi Shi'ites, as reflected in the creation of the "army of al-Mahdi", heralds the widening of the anti-occupation movement beyond the expectations of the US government.
Last Thursday, about 10,000 young men reportedly showed up in the holy city of Najaf to join the "army of al-Mahdi". The volunteers had responded to a request by Muqtada al-Sadr, a 30-year-old anti-American cleric with an expanding following among the dissatisfied Iraqi Shi'ites. The cleric has been trying to establish himself as the leader of the Iraqi Shi'ites since the fall of the Saddam Hussein regime.
His army is named after Mahdi, the 12th Imam of the Shi'ites, who is believed to have disappeared about 1,200 years ago. Being a descendent of the Prophet Mohammad, the imam will reappear to save the world when corruption and oppression dominates, according to the Shi'ite faith. His reappearance will therefore end tyrannical and corrupt regimes. This concept of the promised savior (or messiah) has existed in other religions and different Islamic sects in various forms. Al-Sadr's choice of name for his army indicates his intention to capitalize on this belief's message, ie, fighting the oppressors, now symbolized by the US occupying force. According to some reports, an additional reason for this naming could be a belief among some of al-Sadr's followers who consider him as a Mahdi.
Using this concept to rally people around an anti-occupation movement was tried in another Islamic country, Sudan, in the late 19th century. At that time, a cleric, Mohammed Ahmed, declared himself the long-expected Mahdi and united the Sudanese to fight the Egyptians and subsequently the British, who became the de facto colonial power. The poorly equipped and ill-trained Mahdi army's capture of Khartoum guarded by the well-trained British troops was a major defeat for the British in 1885 and who restored their power only 13 years later.
As spelled out by its leader, al-Sadr, the army of al-Mahdi will aim at forcing US troops out of Iraq. On many occasions, he has clearly demanded the end of the US occupation of Iraq as a first step to give Iraqis an opportunity to choose their desired political system, which he wants to be an Islamic republic.
The army of al-Mahdi is yet to become a military force to reckon with. Given the growing opposition among the Iraqis, including the Shi'ites, who account for 60 percent of the population, there seems to be no shortage of recruits for this army. In addition to those who showed up in Najaf, about 1,000 people from Baghdad's poor neighborhood of Saddam City, now renamed al-Sadr City, responded to al-Sadr's call.
As for training and weapons, it is not clear how the volunteers can be trained and armed given the US concern about al-Sadr's followers. Sheikh Aws al-Khafaji, al-Sadr's spokesman, refused to comment on these issues and confined himself to stating: "I can't say what weapons the army will have." However, he added, "It will not fight with sticks, and it is not just a large crowd of protesters. It is an army."
To avoid any hostile US reaction, al-Sadr has declined to declare war on the US troops since his emergence on the political scene in the post-Saddam era. Until his call last week for forming an army, his followers' anti-American occupation activities had been confined to demonstrations, apart from their extensive involvement in relief work in cities such as Baghdad. Having the mentioned concern in mind, "for the time being Muqtada is not considering calling for jihad against the US occupation", according to al-Khafaji, who added: "We want to prove we are peaceful if [the Americans] are peaceful." In addition to that concern, fear of alienating ordinary people unprepared for an urban war seems to be another reason for the peaceful policy. "Muqtada wants [the volunteers] to get out of the cities, but not out of Iraq now," stressed al-Khafaji, who added: "Having troops in the cities frightens people."
Peaceful methods are reportedly the only current means for the al-Mahdi army to pursue its objective. Yet it is not clear how this "peaceful" policy can be compatible with creating an army, which, by definition, should pursue a non-peaceful policy. While there are many uncertainties about the future of Iraq, it is quite certain that the deployment of US troops is part of a plan for a long-term US presence in that country. Given this fact, it is unrealistic to expect them to leave in reaction to peaceful activities. Even if the al-Mahdi army does not resort to arms, its activities as part of the anti-American occupation activities of al-Sadr's followers will lead to a confrontation between the two sides at some point in the future.
For the time being, both sides do not see violence as an appropriate measure, for different reasons. For al-Sadr, such a policy would inevitably lead to a US crackdown on his followers for which they are not ready. For the Americans, any attack on al-Sadr or his followers would certainly lead to their radicalization, an unwise scenario given the reported significant backing for him among the Iraqi Shi'ites as estimated to account for about 15 percent of the latter. As the number of hit-and-run attacks on US troops and their casualties increase, turning the al-Sadr followers into active enemies would be unwise. Last month's show of force of his followers should have convinced the Americans of that point. Reportedly, a large crowd of al-Sadr followers estimated at 10,000 gathered in Najaf to prevent a few dozen US troops from detaining their leader. The US troops' denial of that intention ended the standoff peacefully.
Drawing on the massive suppression of the Iraqi Shi'ites by the ousted Iraqi regime, the Americans' hope for Shi'ite backing of their occupation, or at least for Shi'ite neutrality, seems to be an unrealistic expectation from a population under occupation. As reflected in various demonstrations in predominantly Shi'ite cities such as Najaf and Kerbela, the growing sentiment of dissatisfaction among the Shi'ites is preparing ground for widespread anti-American attacks for which US troops do not seem to be prepared. Although they are yet to become a military force, the positive response of a significant number of young Shi'ites to al-Sadr's call reflected their community's potential to add a military dimension to its expanding anti-American occupation protests.
Dr Hooman Peimani works as an independent consultant with international organizations in Geneva and does research in international relations. |
