OTOH, the election will provide a windfall for anyone owning a television station in California.
washingtonpost.com
Calif. Recall To Trigger Money Race
Spending on Fight to Replace Davis May Top $50 Million
By Thomas B. Edsall and Dan Balz
Washington Post Staff Writers
Saturday, August 9, 2003; Page A01
The election to recall California Gov. Gray Davis (D) and the battle to replace him will trigger a torrent of political spending that will probably exceed $50 million, with Indian tribes, wealthy Republicans, unions and other Democratic groups planning major, independent expenditure campaigns.
There is no legal limit on contributions to such independent campaigns in California, and the vast bulk of the money will go for television commercials, traditionally the most effective way of communicating with voters in the nation's biggest state.
Davis is not limited, either, on what he can raise from a single contributor because under the law, he is technically not a candidate. He expects to spend $15 million to $20 million in his bid to defeat the recall initiative and save his job, one adviser said.
Film star Arnold Schwarzenegger, running as a Republican, is likely to match Davis dollar-for-dollar. Those running to replace Davis can accept no more than $21,200 in contributions from any individual, company or union, but Schwarzenegger, who makes more than $20 million a movie, will be free to dip into his personal fortune to fund the bulk of his campaign -- and he has said he will.
The lack of contribution limits either under law or because of personal fortune will drive the money race to amazing extremes, especially considering the brevity of the campaign: The recall election is less than nine weeks away, on Oct. 7.
Other major candidates will spend $10 million to $15 million, advisers and strategists in California said. Sal Russo, who is advising business executive Bill Simon, the Republican who lost to Davis in November, said $10 million might be enough to run an effective campaign.
Insurance Commissioner John Garamendi (D) and Tom McClintock, a Republican state senator, will have trouble matching the other candidates, strategists said, but other declared candidates, such as commentator and author Arianna Huffington and businessman and former baseball commissioner Peter Ueberroth, have the personal wealth to spend heavily.
Spending through independent expenditure campaigns is also likely to spiral as a result of the lack of contribution limits.
Indian tribes with gambling casinos on their reservations may spend as much as $10 million in such a campaign on behalf of Democratic Lt. Gov. Cruz Bustamante's candidacy, a source familiar with the plans said. Bustamante has worked on behalf of the tribes.
Democrats said a second referendum on the ballot, a proposal to bar the state from collecting statistics by race, is certain to prompt opposition among minority groups, liberals and other base Democratic voters. The campaign against the referendum will provide wealthy Democrats a vehicle to give unlimited contributions to help boost Democratic turnout and assist Davis.
Several other independent expenditure campaigns will probably spring up once the Saturday deadline passes for candidates to file papers for the race. "That's the big unknown," said Republican strategist Ken Khachigian, who was lined up with Rep. Darrell Issa (R). Issa's money fueled the petition drive that helped qualify the recall initiative, but he dropped out of the race on Thursday.
Democratic strategists did not rule out the possibility that pro-Davis forces might use an independent expenditure committee to fund negative messages, allowing the governor to stay more positive and avoid criticism such as he received last week from state Attorney General Bill Lockyer, who accused Davis of running a "puke" campaign last year.
Republican strategists were less clear about what might spring up on their side. A number of Republican sources said wealthy Republicans from the moderate wing of the party are contemplating an anti-Davis independent expenditure campaign that would be designed to help Schwarzenegger.
Duf Sundheim, chairman of the California Republican Party, said the state party will fund a substantial get-out-the-vote operation and will work with the pro-recall committee to the extent it is legal to do so. Sundheim declined to say how much the state GOP will budget for its operation. He said elements of the pro-recall forces will meet Sunday, after the filing deadline for candidates, to assess how to move forward.
The Oct. 7 recall is a double-barreled election. Voters will have to first decide whether to vote Davis out of office. Then voters, including those who support retention of Davis, will be asked to pick a replacement. Davis's name will not be among those in the replacement contest, so his future will depend entirely on the outcome of the first vote.
Davis has a reputation as a prodigious fundraiser, to the point of offending even many of his closest supporters. He traveled to Chicago at the beginning of the week to ask labor unions for a commitment of $10 million, and a Davis adviser said yesterday that "we'll get close" to that figure.
The governor's advisers also said the decision by former Los Angeles mayor Richard Riordan, a Republican, not to run represents a major boost for Davis's fundraising. Although they are from different parties, Davis and Riordan shared many of the same major contributors in the business and entertainment industries in Los Angeles.
A number of Davis's former allies warned, however, that Davis has alienated much of the support that allowed him to raise $70 million in his 2002 reelection campaign. Sources close to such labor groups as the California Teachers Association and the Service Employees International Union said they are keeping their options open and are considering supporting Bustamante.
The state AFL-CIO has come out strongly behind Davis. But national organized labor figures said privately that there is no unanimity behind Davis, and many are worried about his viability in the recall election.
In labor and most liberal interest groups, there is a consensus that on the recall question, leaders will press constituents to vote "no," in support of Davis. But no such agreement exists on a replacement candidate should Davis fail. "We are taking stock of events. It's very unclear what the lay of the land will look like even next week," a top national labor strategist said.
In addition to television costs, serious candidates can expect to spend millions more on direct mail and on getting those who vote by mail to get their ballots into mailboxes. Voting by mail is a major factor in referenda elections.
Two factors could keep costs down: First, the recall and replacement contests have produced more free newspaper, television and radio coverage than any state election in recent memory. Second, because of the campaign's brevity, television stations may not have enough available commercial time to meet all the demands.
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