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Gold/Mining/Energy : Precious and Base Metal Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Little Joe who wrote (16306)	8/10/2003 2:20:15 PM
From: loantech	Respond to of 39344

Little Joe, After that great post I think you need to apply to SI for a name change to Big Joe. <g> tom

To: Little Joe who wrote (16306)	8/10/2003 2:37:46 PM
From: Canuck Dave	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 39344

CRB is a difficult indicator to analyze: Lots of components. I think a better way to understand it is by breaking it up into its sub-components, grains, metals etc. Sorry I don't have a link for this, but there is one out there somewhere. And the dollar index is misleading as the measuring stick (i.e. the other currencies) is shrinking. The ECB call for a weaker Euro capped the rise. Nice to see that there's now two open mouth committees at work massaging expectations. Competitive devaluation is skewing any meaningful analysis. Gold and particularly oil are the truth serums right now, IMO. CD

To: Little Joe who wrote (16306)	8/10/2003 5:40:45 PM
From: TrueScouse	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 39344

lj: Great post! I also like to look at the long-term monthly charts and I agree with your projections. Only one point of clarification... My CRBI charts show an all time high at around 276 in 1988. So your "breakout from double bottom" target of 278 would almost exactly match that -- which makes sense. The 1988 high occurred about 6 months after a major fall in the US $ Index (from 130 down to 85 over the previous couple of years). Incidentally, the US $ then went into a long-term bottoming formation that took it down to about 80 but that lasted almost 10 years! It then started its major move up from 1997 to 2001. So these $ trends last a very long time -- especially the downtrends. What the US $ chart is telling me is to expect a rapid move down to strong support at about 80 over the next 12 to 18 months, and then several years of "agony" for the greenback as it forms a bottom in the 70 to 75 range -- i.e. a bear market and consolidation for the rest of this decade. Again, great post LJ. It's vitally important to keep the big picture in mind. Thanks, Howy

To: Little Joe who wrote (16306)	8/10/2003 6:16:30 PM
From: gold$10k	Respond to of 39344

Hi Little Joe, Nice post. My big picture HUI scenario from May 2nd didn't expect the HUI breakout for another month, but it is still pretty much in tune with your analysis. Message 18905717 From the weekly chart below, I calculate the HUI target as 154.85 (breakout point) + (154.99 - 92.82) = 217.02, but anywhere in that general area is good enough for me. <g> stockcharts.com Best, vt

To: Little Joe who wrote (16306)	8/10/2003 8:22:03 PM
From: churchy6	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 39344

Little Joe, here's the chart (and agreement from Jim Sinclair) representing your CRBI discussion: jsmineset.com

To: Little Joe who wrote (16306)	8/17/2003 8:22:06 AM
From: crustyoldprospector	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 39344

Little Joe and Louis Lambrect, I had missed Little Joe's excellent post. LJ, here is a chart for the US dollar index: stockcharts.com[l,a]daolyymy[df][pc13!c50!b200][vc60][ilb14!la12,26,9!lh14,3!lm12!ld20!le12,26,9 Incidentally to the $ chart, I had been thinking a few months back that an intermediate bottom in the 90 area was in the cards. Now, from an Elliott point of view, it looks even better. I see the following wave structure, confined within a down channel (important point), starting from 119 in 4/02: 1 at 104 in 7/02, , 2 at 107 in 12/02, 3 at 92 in 6/03, 4 at 98 the first of this month, and 5 at 89 (where 1=5) coming 3 months from today. Note the wave 1 about 3-1/2 months and wave 3 about 6 months, close to Fibinocci numbers. Helps pin the 3-1/2 months to 89. Alternative: 83 after 6 months (5 1/2 months from now), but that would be end January and a bad time for a stock market bottom, which I expect around the same time as a dollar bottom. Major, intermediate stock market/dollar bottom near November options expiration? Thoughts appreciated. crusty