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Politics : Stockman Scott's Political Debate Porch -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: lurqer who wrote (25045)	8/10/2003 9:11:20 PM
From: Lizzie Tudor	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 89467

Well I am bearish on the economy for 04 so we'll see how that goes. If Bush is reelected I will be much more negative on the tech economy than if he isn't.

To: lurqer who wrote (25045)	8/10/2003 9:30:00 PM
From: t2	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 89467

But the general market valuations in '83 were nothing like the bubble valuations of '29, '66 or '00. The first two certainly led to secular bears. The last one has yet to get to "fair value". I used to think the valuations this time around had to be adjusted for the fact that we have low interest rates. Lately, I came to the realization that my assumption of low interest rates is invalid. If international investors stopping US bonds, rates will shoot up. If China decides to adjust the exchange rate..lookout! Just thinking about it..how long will they keep funding American deficits...not for long, IMHO. The recent move in bond market was just an indication of what is going to happen down the road...and we might get a 1987 type stock market drop in the coming in the next few months if bond yield start up sharply again. Nothing in tech to stimulate demand; no new Windows launch...that is usually the best way to stimulate short term demand. The next bull markets probably has to start after rates have gone up high enough levels.