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Technology Stocks : Applied Materials No-Politics Thread (AMAT) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Sarmad Y. Hermiz who wrote (6696)	8/11/2003 9:51:47 PM
From: Bookdon	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 25522

You are quite right. The only reason to buy a stock in a company that never intends to distribute any money to its stockholders (this includes a very large number of companies) is the hope of a "greater fool" buying its current "story" at a higher price. Since this is an institutionalized situation by now, it is not an unreasonable thing to do. We holders (yes, I am long on AMAT just now) are assuming that as the semiconductor business improves, AMAT (one of the "pure plays" with little competition) will attract buyers at higher prices.

To: Sarmad Y. Hermiz who wrote (6696)	8/11/2003 10:46:23 PM
From: Gottfried	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 25522

Sarmad, try putting KLIC into the model Don linked to. It looks better than AMAT. Gottfried

To: Sarmad Y. Hermiz who wrote (6696)	8/11/2003 11:31:13 PM
From: Donald Wennerstrom	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 25522

<In my opinion, AMAT could have any price from $5 to $50, and it wouldn't surprise me> Sarmad, it wouldn't surprise me either. I think you made several very good observations in your post. I will make the following comment about AMAT and the semi-equip stocks in general - it is just my "gut feeling" about what is going on. The growth in this area over the past 10 to 20 years has been tremendous(except for the past 3 to 4 years). People have made "tons" of money in this area in the past and they expect to do the same in the future. It's like "throw some money in this garden" because this garden is very fertile and my next door neighbor has gotten wealthy beyond my wildest dreams - I am going to do the same - all I have to do is buy some AMAT(or other SCE stock), sit back for 2 to 3 years and then I'll be rich too, just like my neighbor. Over the long term, I expect the area to grow as well, but I don't think the percentage rate of growth will ever equal the same as the previous years. The question is - how is the market, institutions and individuals going to come to grips with this fact? - and most importantly "when" are they going to come to grips with this fact? <So obviously, AMAT is not being sold as an investment. It is a currency. A store of value.> I couldn't agree with you more! The question is - how do you value that currency in the 5 to 50 dollar range? The percentage growth rate has a lot to do with the answer to that question, and right now, I don't think the 5 to 10 percent growth rate is going to "hack it". I am not talking about profit growth because that can be quite high for a short period of time during the recovery phase from the past 3 years. What I am talking about is sales/revenue growth rate over the next 5 to 10 year period. Don