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Technology Stocks : Applied Materials No-Politics Thread (AMAT) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Donald Wennerstrom who wrote (6701)	8/12/2003 9:28:06 AM
From: Sarmad Y. Hermiz	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 25522

>> and right now, I don't think the 5 to 10 percent growth rate is going to "hack it". Don, There's a wrinkle that might be absent from your analysis. The total growth rate of the SCE industry might be only 5% or 10% in terms of total revenue. But you have to consider the "survivorship effect". Meaning that the allocation of revenue might shift toward some leading companies (while others go out of business). Personally I don't have the knowledge to figure out who's gaining or losing. But the total pie is large enough so that a "story" can be spun to support a high price based on revenue tilting toward specific companies. I have no idea whether AMAT is gaining share or not. And probably the share effect is too small relative to the "total pie" effect (currently). But the disparity in various people's valuation might be attributed to differences in share expectations. Sarmad