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To: energyplay who wrote (37151)8/12/2003 4:51:25 PM
From: MulhollandDrive  Respond to of 74559
 
if you're treading on thin ice, might as well dance

abcnews.go.com

The Search Is Over
Thousands of Jobless Have Given Up Looking for a Job Altogether

By Catherine Valenti

Aug. 12— Julie Hasselberger, who lost her job as a human resources manager in October, has gotten frustrated with going to countless rounds of lengthy job interviews, only to be told at the last minute that she didn't get the job.


So now the 37-year-old mother of three from Sandy Hook, Conn., has simply stopped looking.

"I've just gotten really exasperated," she says. "I just don't have the energy and the stamina anymore to do the networking."

Hasselberger's story is becoming a familiar one as many Americans find themselves without work for lengthy periods of time. Almost 2 million workers, or 21 percent of the total jobless population, were out of a job for 27 weeks or more in July, according to the latest figures from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

That is leading to a growing number of discouraged workers, or workers who have stopped looking for work altogether. In July, 470,000 people said they had stopped looking for a job because they were discouraged by the job market — 16 percent more than the 405,000 discouraged workers reported in July of last year.

"It's one of the worst job markets we've seen since the great depression in terms of the length and the breadth of the problems across industries and regions," says Mark Zandi, chief economist at economy.com, a West Chester, Pa.-based economic research firm.

Trying to Get By

Economists and job market observers say the growing number of discouraged workers could lead to more economic distress for individuals and for the nation. Many workers who have exhausted their unemployment benefits have had to raid their savings or retirement funds or have had to borrow money to get by.

About six in 10 unemployed Americans said they had spent a significant amount of their savings, while almost half have borrowed money to pay their current expenses, and nearly a third had increased credit card debt, according to a recent survey by the National Employment Law Project, a New York-based nonprofit advocacy group for low-wage and unemployed workers.

Further, one in four unemployed surveyed said they had to move in with friends or family to get by, while one-third say they are no longer covered by health insurance.

"They're in a world of financial hurt," says Zandi. "The thing that makes it most difficult is the fact that the job market is weak across the board. You couldn't even pick up and move."

Joseph Madziarczyk, a 50-year-old program manager who lives in Escondido, Calif., has been out of work for a year and a half after getting laid off from a job at telecommunications company Titan Wireless. His unemployment benefits ran out a year ago and his health insurance through COBRA will run out in October. Having used up all of his savings, Madziarczyk is about to start taking loans out on the equity of his home.

"I feel like I'm starting completely over," he says.

Though his job search has become increasingly frustrating, Madziarczyk still hasn't given up and doesn't consider himself a discouraged worker — yet.

"I can't afford to be in that position," he says. "But there are times when you would like to throw up your hands and say, 'That's it.' "

Many Seek Alternatives

In lieu of looking for work, some discouraged workers have decided to strike out on their own, either starting their own businesses or doing freelance work under contract and calling themselves consultants.

"They seek interim positions or just projects and go out there and ask, 'Can you help me?' " says Niels Nielsen, president of Princeton Management Consultants, a Princeton, N.J.-based human resource consulting firm. "Others start their own businesses in other fields."

Hasselberger says she has passed an exam to qualify her to sell life insurance and may start to do that on a part-time basis. But with her children home for the summer, she doesn't expect to begin until the fall.

"I've been focusing on my children and what they need," she says.

"Some folks take training courses to improve their skills," says Andrew Stettner, policy analyst for the National Employment Law Project. "Others decide they're going to spend the summer with their family and somehow scrape by."

Repercussions for the Economy

Some economists, like Zandi, fear that this long-term joblessness could make itself felt in the economy. Although the nation's official arbiter of recessions, the National Bureau of Economic Research, recently declared that the recession had ended in November 2001, after only eight months, the dire employment situation is making many Americans feel like it is still going on.

"I thoroughly believed by the end of 2002 that the economy was going to turn around and by 2003 things were going to be great," says Madziarczyk, who admits he is seeing some glimmers of hope, like more job postings and friends whose 401(k)s are showing positive returns.

Despite high levels of borrowing in recent years, consumers, who make up the engine of the U.S. economy, are already turning more cautious and trying to pay down debt to get ahead. Consumers trimmed their borrowing by a seasonally adjusted $400 million in June from May, pushing down the total consumer debt to $1.76 trillion, according to the latest figures from the Federal Reserve. Demand for revolving debt, such as credit cards, dropped by $1.3 billion, or 2.2 percent rate.

Meanwhile, the percentage of homeowners who fell behind on their mortgages dropped slightly in the first quarter, but the number of loans in foreclosure set a record, according to the latest figures from the Mortgage Bankers Association.

"It's beginning to show up in terms of defaulting and foreclosures, which aggravates the problem not only for the individual but for the economy," says Nielsen.

Don’t Give Up

While a lengthy and often fruitless job search can prove frustrating, experts caution unemployed workers not to give up their quest. Getting out of the house and having a routine is important, even if it's to pursue a hobby or social activity.

"It's essential to have a structured, active approach, instead of retreating from life," says Nielsen, who offers job seekers tips in the Princeton Management Consultants Guide to Your New Job.

Madziarczyk, for one, is heeding that advice. He's been volunteering on boards and taking dancing lessons. Though increasing his visibility hasn't led to any job contacts, he says that getting out and socializing has done wonders for his morale.

"From the standpoint of socializing and picking up your spirits, it's working," he says. "You don't want to go into an interview with low energy and low enthusiasm."



To: energyplay who wrote (37151)8/12/2003 11:30:50 PM
From: TobagoJack  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 74559
 
Hi EP, I spoke with three software guys (finance, techie, marketer) from California-based mature mid-sized portal software outfit (target market are corporates needing collaborative work platform) wishing to tap the China market, and they say they know things are bad in the valley, giving examples of bad times.

I spoke to a California dentist, and he tells me that his normally recession-proof business is down by 10% due to folks not having jobs, lost health benefits, etc.

I spoke to my cousin who is a insurance niche product developer (target market = corporates), and he says folks are simply waiting for housing implosion.

<<Interviewing activity is way up in Silicon Valley>>

... So, the question would be, what are people signing new jobs getting paid relative to old jobs? I do not see any reason for acting on hope.

Chugs, Jay



To: energyplay who wrote (37151)8/13/2003 5:41:07 AM
From: EL KABONG!!!  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 74559
 
Hi ep,

Well, I had a chance to look the markets over tonight, and things look like they could be quite bullish over the next week or so. Busting 9500 on the DJIA could be in the cards.

Prior to the Fed meeting today, I was seriously considering cashing in all my longs and booking whatever profits/losses I had. But the Fed has clearly signaled no rate increases for the foreseeable future, which should (somewhere along the way) calm the bond markets, which in turn should be quite bullish for stocks in general.

The big question is which stocks to play, and when? Who's going to lead the market? Tech? Not likely, as many of them are already priced for perfect performance in 2004. Retail? Possible, especially if we continue to see bullish reviews of retailers in the finance rags. Drugs? Not likely. Biotech is already overpriced in my opinion, and the pharmaceuticals (Pfizer excepted) just look "tired" to me. Financials? Scary possibilities of bad loans, risky derivatives, mortgages and refinancing going down the tubes, so I'd skip them (for now). Energy looks interesting, but what would happen if OPEC unexpectedly lowers the price of a barrel of oil? Gold and precious metals look like they might take a break here, maybe go sideways for a while. Health care is under too much pressure from investigations of a few large firms thought to maybe have cheated on Medicare somehow. Housing stocks have already had a good run, so how much more to the upside remains?

Some tough calls to make here. I've got a nest of cash on the sidelines looking for a place to make money, and interest rates on cash vehicles just aren't "safe" anymore. What to do, what to do???

KJC