Poll Places Bustamante In Lead to Succeed Davis
Schwarzenegger Tops the Other Calif. Hopefuls
washingtonpost.com
By William Booth
Washington Post Staff Writer
Saturday, August 16, 2003; Page A03
LOS ANGELES, Aug. 15 -- Before the first television ads have aired, the race to succeed California Gov. Gray Davis (D) if he is recalled came down to just two men, Republican action star Arnold Schwarzenegger and Democratic Lt. Gov. Cruz M. Bustamante, according to a nonpartisan statewide poll to be released Saturday.
The California Field Poll found 25 percent of registered voters opted for Bustamante followed by 22 percent for Schwarzenegger.
The other candidates trailed in single digits: State Sen. Tom McClintock took 9 percent; businessman Bill Simon won 8 percent; former baseball commissioner Peter Ueberroth received 5 percent; all three are Republicans. Independent and columnist Arianna Huffington got 4 percent, and Green Party candidate Peter Camejo received 2 percent.
The poll also found Davis in deeper trouble. The beleaguered governor earned the dubious distinction of being the most unpopular governor in the 56-year history of the Field Poll, which put his approval rating at 22 percent, the lowest ever for Davis. The survey also showed support for the recall leaping, with 58 percent of registered voters supporting Davis's ouster, compared with 51 percent last month.
As the poll results were being released, a federal judge in San Jose threatened to postpone the Oct. 7 election because the hasty schedule may violate the Voting Rights Act of 1965.
Civil rights lawyers argued that state election officials were reducing the number of polling places and hiring fewer Spanish-speaking poll workers, which would discriminate against voters. Such changes in electoral processes in counties with low voter participation require clearance in advance by the Justice Department, which is only now mulling the request.
The Associated Press reported that U.S. District Judge Jeremy Fogel wrote today that he was "extremely reluctant" to intervene, but federal voting law must be followed. He scheduled another hearing for Aug. 29 and said he was considering postponing the recall election if the Justice Department did not approve the changes by then.
In the poll, the seeming surge for Bustamante despite the publicity surrounding Schwarzenegger surprised many. Luis Vizcaino, a Bustamante spokesman, said, "We're obviously pleased with these numbers. We're humbled by these numbers, but we realize we have a lot of work ahead of us."
Bill Carrick, a top Democratic strategist, said that given all the media attention on Schwarzenegger, he thought the film star would still be out front, adding that perhaps Schwarzenegger's reluctance to state his views and his choices of advisers are sending mixed messages to voters. "After the initial entertainment of his announcement, there's been a lot of concern whether he is a serious candidate and where he stands on the issues," Carrick said.
The Schwarzenegger campaign played down the survey. "It's the only poll in America this week that shows Cruz Bustamante ahead," spokesman Rob Stutzman said. "Every other poll confirms that Schwarzenegger is leading. We're confident in Arnold's position at the head of the field." Polls taken last weekend showed Schwarzenegger leading and Bustamanate a distant second.
"I don't think anybody in California would have predicted that Cruz would be ahead of Arnold at this point," said Bruce Cain, director of the Institute of Government Studies at the University of California at Berkeley. The support for the three other Republicans, he said, "shows the fractured field of Republicans is really hurting Schwarzenegger. He could have a big lead."
Mark DiCamillo, director of the California Field Poll, stressed that "this is a very early look."
"But it looks like two men dominate," he said. "And they clearly have their own constituencies."
The poll, based on telephone interviews with 448 likely voters, was conducted Aug. 10-13 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 4.1 percentage points.
DiCamillo said Bustamante draws his strength from Democrats, winning 48 percent of them. Schwarzenegger takes 36 percent of registered Republicans, but he gives up 36 percent to his GOP challengers, Simon and McClintock. "That's a problem for Schwarzenegger," DiCamillo said.
The conservative wing of the California GOP has been grumbling that Schwarzenegger does not share many of their core values. The action star supports, for example, more gun control and abortion rights.
Some Republican activists behind Schwarzenegger have been pushing Simon and McClintock to step aside and let the Arnold juggernaut roll on -- but Simon and McClintock say they're in the race until the end. John Feliz, a McClintock spokesman, said, "We're thrilled with the numbers. It shows that Schwarzenegger is not invulnerable."
Schwarzenegger, however, polls strong among nonpartisan voters, beating Bustamante there by 2 to 1. "Think Jesse Ventura voters," DiCamillo said.
Staff writer Rene Sanchez and special correspondent Kimberly Edds contributed to this report.
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