bayarea.com.
Posted on Sat, Aug. 16, 2003
Schwarzenegger, Bustamante close in new recall poll
VOTERS' SUPPORT STILL IN FLUX
By Laura Kurtzman, Mary Anne Ostrom and Dawn Chmielewski
Mercury News
Actor Arnold Schwarzenegger announced his candidacy to millions of viewers on ``The Tonight Show'' and made the covers of the major news magazines, but a new poll says he is locked in a dead heat with Lt. Gov. Cruz Bustamante to replace Gov. Gray Davis in the Oct. 7 recall election.
The unexpected results of the Field Poll, released today, lay out significant challenges for both front-runners: neither Democrat Bustamante, who has the support of 25 percent of likely voters, nor Republican Schwarzenegger, with 22 percent, has a majority of his party's support. The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus five percentage points.
Bustamante's showing reflects two key political facts: California remains a strongly Democratic state, and in this race, Republicans are splitting their vote while Democrats have just one major candidate.
To broaden his base, Bustamante must bring home wayward Democrats, nearly 40 percent of whom are undecided or supporting other candidates. Meanwhile, Schwarzenegger, a moderate who is facing challenges from his party's right, must win over independents and lure Democrats across party lines.
Race in great flux
Despite each man's sizable lead -- none of the others in the race received more than single-digit support -- the poll of likely voters showed the race is still very much in flux. Many voters have yet to make up their minds and even those who have settled on a candidate say they may change their minds by the time they vote.
``Voters have only generalized impressions of all of these people,'' said Field Poll Director Mark DiCamillo, who said candidates will have to work hard to hone their campaign messages in the short time left. ``They're really going to be hungry for information.''
Bustamante, who came under swift attack from Republicans on Friday, has more solid support in his party than does Schwarzenegger, a reflection of the deep division between the moderate and conservative wings of the Republican Party. A third of Republican support is going to state Sen. Tom McClintock, the Southern California conservative who narrowly lost the state controller's race last year, and to Bill Simon, who lost last year to Davis. McClintock has 9 percent of likely voters; Simon 8 percent.
Former baseball commissioner Peter Ueberroth, who has been out of the public eye and has made no public appearances this week, received 5 percent -- about the same support as columnist Arianna Huffington, the independent who has been campaigning up and down the state receiving substantial television coverage.
Of all the candidates, however, Ueberroth, who is expected to kick off his campaign Tuesday, appears to have the greatest potential to pull support from outside his own party. Although he is a Republican, Ueberroth is positioning himself as an independent and elicits the least negative response from Democrats.
``His image rating is quite good, and it's actually the least partisan of any of the candidates,'' DiCamillo said, adding that Ueberroth could peel off some of Bustamante's Democrats and Schwarzenegger's Republicans. ``He's the candidate who could damage both of the candidates.''
The poll found that neither Bustamante nor Schwarzenegger is winning much crossover support and both men are getting mixed reviews from voters, largely because of the negative feelings they elicit from voters outside their party. Huffington has the highest negative ratings of any of the leading candidates.
Simon's campaign manager, K.B. Forbes, said polls right now ``are indicators of party affiliation and name identity,'' adding that he believes voters will start shifting to his candidate as soon as the issues become clear.
Importance of issues
In fact, half of voters polled said a candidate's position on issues was more important than leadership abilities, a finding that may prove troublesome to Schwarzenegger, who has almost no political experience and whose views are largely unknown. In addition, a leading adviser to Schwarzenegger said early in the campaign that the actor would stress his leadership qualities to voters.
But the campaign has since begun to send out a different message, by appointing high-profile advisers like investor Warren Buffett and former Secretary of State George Shultz. Friday, actor Rob Lowe joined the team.
``We are intensely focused on working on our policy positions and building a campaign team,'' said Sean Walsh, a Schwarzenegger adviser, Friday.
Bustamante's campaign manager, Richie Ross, said he was ``happy but humbled'' by the polling results and acknowledged that the lieutenant governor has a lot of work to do. Monday, Bustamante is expected to get an endorsement from the Latino caucus in the state Legislature, although Democrats are under pressure to support Davis and no one else. This week, Assemblywoman Jenny Oropeza, D-Carson, became the first caucus member to formally endorse Bustamante.
Republicans are already seeking to exploit the difficulty of Bustamante's position.
John Feliz, McClintock's campaign director, said Bustamante is sending a confusing message to voters by urging them to reject the recall but still vote for him.
``The Davis partisans are not going to feel great about voting to keep Gray Davis, and turning around and voting for a traitor to replace him,'' Feliz said.
Schwarzenegger's campaign dismissed the results, saying other polls had the movie star in first place.
``There will be dozens and dozens of polls coming out before Election Day,'' said Walsh, Schwarzenegger's aide. ``Both public and private polls show Arnold ahead of Cruz.''
But Ueberroth's campaign manager, Dan Schnur, said the poll reflected the saturation coverage given to Schwarzenegger as much as anything else.
``There's no question that some of the candidates in the race have gotten an extraordinary amount of attention in the opening days of the campaign,'' he said. ``But as time passes and California voters focus on the tremendous stakes involved in this election, they'll turn to a candidate with the experience and credibility of a proven problem-solver like Peter Ueberroth.''
Ueberroth, a multimillionaire, put $1 million into his campaign this week.
Bustamante's position
Bustamante, who has heavy support among Latinos and other minorities, has a slight lead over Schwarzenegger in Los Angeles County, but is trailing the actor in the rest of Southern California. Bustamante has a significant lead in the traditionally Democratic Bay Area, which has been Davis' stronghold.
Friday's poll did not include Davis, who will appear on a separate part of the ballot. Voters will first be asked whether he should be recalled, and then will be able to cast ballots for a replacement if he is. Davis needs a majority to keep his office, but if he loses, his replacement needs only to get more votes than anyone else.
In a Field Poll released Friday, 58 percent of likely voters said they would cast their ballots to recall Davis, whose unfavorable ratings are the highest of any state or national officeholder since the poll began measuring 56 years ago. |
