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Pastimes : SARS - what next? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Maurice Winn who wrote (659)	8/17/2003 5:26:06 PM
From: Henry Niman	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1070

I suspect the jump is from Taiwan. Victims were being cremated before they could be tested for SARS CoV and therefore were not being counted. After some publicity, Taiwan simply doubled the number who were said to have died. Unfortunetly, reporting seems to be getting more political than scientific. The spinning in Vancouver however, appears to be really getting out of control. At this time, it looks like considerable filtering is required to get to the real deal.

To: Maurice Winn who wrote (659)	8/17/2003 5:27:18 PM
From: Henry Niman	Respond to of 1070

Speaking of spin, read this: Today ProMed is insisting that it is too early to tell if the SARS outbreak in Vancouver is a SARS outbreak in Vancouver. There were only 4 positive SARS CoV patients in Vancouver in the spring and only 4 probable cases with no deaths. Now there are 163 with symptoms, 3 dead with pneumonia, and 10/19 positive PCR results for SARS CoV (and 4/7 positive for SARS CoV antibody). WHO was worried about detecting a SARS outbreak with a flu background in the fall/winter. Today there is no flu background (although the patients were tested for flu and came back negative), yet WHO and ProMed don't seem to be able to recognize a major SARS outbreak a few miles from the site of the only documented SARS transmission in British Columbia in the spring! Although new cases may emerge from animals infected SARS CoV again, the trouble is clearly right here in River City (and it is not based on the number or pool tables, but is related to the number of PEOPLE infected with SARS CoV).