Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Politics : Idea Of The Day -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: IQBAL LATIF who wrote (44382)	8/18/2003 4:53:54 PM
From: IQBAL LATIF	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 50167

No Sauce for the Gander Why can't Americans have the same health care coverage as Congress? BY ROBERT L. BARTLEY Monday, August 18, 2003 12:01 a.m. EDT Our solons are just now scattered around the country far from the Beltway conventional wisdom, so they may be in an educable mood. If you have the opportunity, dear reader, sidle up to a Congressperson and ask: On this health care business, why not give the rest of us the same choices you've given yourself? For the biggest thing Congressfolk will face back in Washington is the proposal for prescription drug benefits under Medicare, and it's galling that none of them rely on Medicare. Instead they've given themselves, their employees and the bureaucrats an entirely different system, now and in retirement. It's called the Federal Employees Health Benefits Program. Lo and behold, it looks a lot like the Medicare proposals Sen. Edward Kennedy and other Democratic millionaires say would destroy Medicare. Indeed, the FEHBP is the model for the reform proposals framed by scholars at places such as the Heritage Foundation and American Enterprise Institute. It's also the choice of the Healthcare Leadership Council, a coalition of chief executives of health care providers ranging from the Mayo Clinic to Abbott Labs. It's also a model for the Bush administration, at least in its better days. Medicare is a top-down system. Congress legislates a one-size-fits-all package of benefits. Then it sets up an agency--CMS, formerly HCFA--to decide what prices to pay. This is central planning like GOSPLAN, which ran the Soviet economy by dictating quantities and prices. So it's no surprise that Medicare is wracked by inefficiency and confusion. It suffers a lag in designing appropriate benefits, for starters, with the prescription drug benefit debate being the latest example. Doctors drop out of the system, refusing new Medicare patients. Seniors find themselves unable to choose the physicians they want. Costs burgeon beyond control. And with the retirement of the baby-boom generation, the number of Americans in this creaking system will double by the year 2030. For themselves and their retainers, by contrast, our Congressfolk designed a plan based on consumer choice and competition. Each spring, the Office of Personnel Management, which administers the federal employee plan, sends a "call letter" to health insurance providers outlining goals and asking each company to propose a benefits package. All plans that meet minimum standards are offered as a choice to federal employees. Thus federal employees and retirees can choose among a dozen or more options. They can strike their own trade-off between coverage and cost, with the government paying part of the premium according to a formula which typically works out at 72% to 75%. Enrollees can change plans once a year, and competition produces innovations in coverage. Prescription drug benefits are already routine, for example. Competition, not so incidentally, also controls costs. As in other businesses, participating plans have to set premiums that cover their costs, but will lose customers if their price is too high. The GAO found that the costs of FEHBP essentially mirror those of other large purchasers of health care. This means its premiums have increased rapidly in the last three years, but over 28 years its costs have been about the same as Medicare, but its benefits have been richer. The system records high patient satisfaction, and it's accepted by physicians almost universally. Unlike Medicare, the FEHBP is not in crisis. The Bush administration planned to use the prescription drug debate to introduce choice and consumer sovereignty into the broader Medicare system. It declared victory when both the House and Senate passed bills, now to be reconciled by a conference committee. But in fact the Senate bill merely adds prescription drug coverage as a new entitlement with no choice element, while the House bill has one lonely provision, introducing choice and competition starting in 2010. Some 75 House Republicans joined a letter suggesting they won't vote for a conference bill without this provision, but Sen. Kennedy is adamant about stripping away President Bush's last fig leaf. The idea of waiting until 2010 is ludicrous enough; we now see reports of a "compromise" of a "pilot program" to test competition. Yet the FEHBP has operated successfully for more than 40 years, and as of July 2002 covered 2.2 million federal workers plus 1.9 million retirees and 4.2 million dependents. Some pilot program. The Bush administration's inclination, at least when heading to the Crawford ranch, seemed to be to surrender to Sen. Kennedy and call it victory. Probably even to pressure GOP members into going along, as it did in passing the current House bill by one vote. In Beltway conventional wisdom, this is skillful triangulation. But how in fact will this play politically? Three-fourths of seniors already have prescription drug coverage either as retired employees or from supplemental insurance; how will they feel about having this taken away in return for more government promises? And in longer-run political calculation the economic merits can't be cavalierly dismissed. On present course, Mr. Bush is likely to spend his second term trying to straighten out the prescription drug benefit, not pressing for further reforms such as salvaging Social Security.

To: IQBAL LATIF who wrote (44382)	8/18/2003 5:00:05 PM
From: IQBAL LATIF	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 50167

Luskin obsession with Krugman continues.... ANNOUNCING THE FAUX KRUGMAN CONTEST So far no one has dared to take the other side of my bet that Paul Krugman's column tomorrow will be about the Bush administration's "denial and deceit" and their "tax cuts for the very rich" leading to last week's blackout. So let's try something else -- a Faux Krugman Contest! Why should Hemingway and Faulkner have all the fun? It's my friend Bruce Bartlett's idea. He wrote, "It is so obvious that Krugman's next column will be about Bush administration duplicity in the blackout. You should run a contest for people to write his opening or closing paragraph in advance. Might be fun! Indeed it might -- so let's do it! You can send opening and closing paragraphs as Bruce suggests, or the whole thing if you want. Remember, a Krugman column is always 765 words. Send it as soon as possible to don@poorandstupid.com. Winners will be posted here and on National Review Online. The contest ends when Krugman's column goes up tonight on the Times web site. Get busy! Posted by Donald Luskin at 4:04 PM \| link

To: IQBAL LATIF who wrote (44382)	8/20/2003 2:26:47 PM
From: IQBAL LATIF	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 50167

Unindicted co-counter-conspirator Donald L. Luskin ventures into the belly of the media beast on CNBC's "Kudlow & Cramer"... Wednesday, August 20 at 8pm EST (and again at 11:00 pm).

To: IQBAL LATIF who wrote (44382)	8/21/2003 8:13:26 PM
From: IQBAL LATIF	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 50167

SOX 448 is the target in near term,...;with 1028 as the mid term main resistance.

To: IQBAL LATIF who wrote (44382)	8/22/2003 1:17:59 PM
From: IQBAL LATIF	Respond to of 50167

Crop Report Market Outlook By Andy Daniels Looking at the current world stocks situation can sum up the outlook for grain and oilseeds. Wheat and coarse grain world stocks have been declining since the 1999-2000 crop year. This rate of decline has accelerated since the 2001-2002 crop year. The world soybean stocks picture is almost a mirror image of wheat and coarse grains since 1999-2000. The following chart shows the tremendous growth we have seen in world soybean stocks since 1999-2000. South America continues to add farm acres, with Brazil expected to increase soy acreage 8-12% this year on top of a 20% increase last year. This trend does not show signs of reversing anytime soon. The USDA August production numbers offered some large surprises to market participants. The weather this growing season had witnessed ample rainfall and benign temperatures through July, but since has witnessed excessive heat and dryness particularly in the Western belt resulting in yield concerns for both corn and beans. This ideal growing climate was marked by a sharp decline in corn and bean prices. Old-crop corn and soybeans were coming off tight domestic supply situations, especially soybeans. This lead to firm nearby prices with spreads spending much of the time at inverses. The commodity funds, trend followers by nature, started selling corn and soybeans on the benign weather. The funds had historically large positions going into the August USDA report, despite substantial pre-report short covering. World Stocks Chart The biggest surprises came in the corn and soybean production numbers. The USDA pegs corn production for 2003-0 4 at 10.064 billion bushels. This number fell 229 million bushels short of the average trade guess of 10.293 billion bushels. The combination of a large fund short position and a favorable surprise from the USDA was good for double-digit gains in corn. In spite of the new USDA numbers, we will still see a large crop and an increase in ending stocks. A 1.184 billion bushel ending stocks number, while smaller than the July 1.339 number, is still a large number. Many in the trade are dropping their production estimates even further given the less than optimal August weather thus far, which could lead to a sub 1.0 billion bushel carryout. CZ-SX Chart The US supply situation only tells half the story. According to the USDA, "(world coarse grain) ending stocks are forecast to drop over 30.3 million tons to 111.7 million, mainly due to heavy draw downs of China corn, Russia barley, and EU barley stocks. The global stocks-to-use ratio is forecast to be 12.1 percent, the lowest since 1973-74. Compared to 2002-03, global corn trade is down 1.2 million tons to 76.3 million. U.S. exports are forecast to recover by 5.0 million tons to 46.0 million tons."