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To: maceng2 who wrote (257141)	8/21/2003 10:50:47 PM
From: orkrious	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 436258

from lance lewis tonight: I neglected to mention a pretty important data point yesterday. GE said its global orders for short-cycle products, such as appliances and plastics, fell as much as 5 percent in July. GE's short-cycle business is typically a pretty good leading indicator for the economy. Thus, it makes one wonder which box exactly this fabled second half boom is going to hop out of in the next month or so? Along those same lines I received an interesting email from a reader last night in the paper industry. He said: I work for a small paper mill in Oregon. July through September is our busy time of year, as this is when the paper for all those Christmas ads is made and shipped. We are not getting any orders at all. In fact, we shut down one of the lightweight machines last week. It’s a very bad sign for the 4th quarter That’s just one mill, but we’re seeing the same thing in linerboard prices (which is used in packaging materials) too. So, it’s not an isolated data point. When will the economic boom that stocks have already more than discounted finally begin? Obviously, I don’t think it will, just as the previous 3 economic booms since 2000 that stocks have tried to discount haven’t actually occurred.