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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Donald Wennerstrom who wrote (11165)	8/23/2003 3:02:07 PM
From: Kirk ©	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95632

That is precisely the point I am making - now we are in the phase of going up the front side of a new bubble. IF you REALLY believe this, then isn't it (lack of a better word but not meaning to insult) "foolish" to not be fully invested like Cary or at least have a partial position as I and the AIM folks do? IF you REALLY knew the direction of the market, they you should be 100% long when it is going up and 100% short when it is going down. All else is really just a hedge to the admission we don't know for sure. Kirk

To: Donald Wennerstrom who wrote (11165)	8/23/2003 4:46:31 PM
From: Proud_Infidel	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95632

And we will overshoot on this bubble just like all the past bubbles IMO, you cannot call this a bubble by any measure, although that is what we constantly hear in the media and on these message boards. A bubble is a mania, a total dislocation from reality. INTC's Q3 projected increase(after yesterday) is greater than any of the past 5 years, including the so-called bubble years of 1999 and 2000. Additionally, we are going to surpass the IC unit volume of 2000 THIS YEAR! Prices are down so in dollar terms so we will be quite a bit lower by that measure. But show me any area of technology where they are selling more units this year than in 2000. It is happening this year in the semis, and yet we are at at third of the valuation we had then, and people still are calling this a bubble. I don't see it. I do see good times ahead for the sector, especially once revenues start flowing in earnest and the low headcount allows for great profitability. I do not believe this profitability has been priced in even here in many names such as LRCX and VSEA. Time will only tell whether I am correct in this or not. BK