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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Donald Wennerstrom who wrote (11181)	8/23/2003 6:55:00 PM
From: Proud_Infidel	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95646

Don, Of course we will not know exactly how good the current Q is for several weeks. But in this environment, where every CEO is afraid of appearing too Bullish and facing an investor lawsuit, this is a very good sign. And you are looking at yearly numbers. The numbers I was referring to was YOY growth in the current Q- higher than any Q3 in the past 5 years by far. Will it double from here, and if so, how long will it take? Of course it will; timing is the only issue IMO. INTC's future is not just MPU's as everyone thinks. They are into flash and are getting into cell phones and many other areas and in this, their size should give them an advantage. In a few years, I believe it will be said "this is not your father's Intel." BK

To: Donald Wennerstrom who wrote (11181)	8/24/2003 10:18:00 AM
From: Kirk ©	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95646

Nice set of data and analysis. Let's say the 7.55 bln is the new quarterly "run rate". Multiplying that by 4 gives us 30.2 bln yearly. In 1999 they did 29.4 bln, in 2000 they did 33.7 bln. Yes, but considering that they are about 10% short of peak revenue and they say the recovery has yet to begin, it makes me wonder how high it will be when we do get a recovery. I bought and held Intel and MSFT back in 1993, now ten years ago. I thought Windows 3.x would make a PC easy enough to use that the productivity I got from adding spreadsheets to my engineering work would begin to spread to the general public. I also doubled up on my IBM as they were cutting costs and about to turn around. If their OS won the war, I wanted to own more of them also. Ten years later, I wonder if it is time to sell more than just a few shares and perhaps buy dividend stocks. If I look at the amount of R&D and new process equipment Intel has spent on, it is hard to imagine anyone else but IBM that will be able to compete once businesses begin to spend again to get a competitive edge. Sure there will be this or that company using foundries who will compete but the real profits might come from having your own fab that you use to produce the most profitable chips where others will be in line for months and months due to under spending on new technology by the current foundries. I am in the market for a $1500 laptop. It is funny but when looking Friday I commented to the salesman that when I bought my first PC for my home business in 1997 that I paid $1,000 just for a high resolution 17" monitor that says it is really only 15.9 inches! I can get a low power version of this monitor now and get a PC 10x faster that will also burn CDs and play DVDs for the extra $500 and it is all portable! Add another $1000 and I can burn DVDs, get an even bigger monitor, have wireless everywhere, and run at nearly 3 GHz.... That PC bought in 1997 was garbage (all sorts of reliability problems as it was bought from that now out of business company that advertised on the back page of the SJ Mercury each week before Frys took over that business) so I replaced it in late 1999 just to be safe for Y2K and to get enough speed to take advantage of DSL (550 MHz Dell). My point is I want to replace my desktop now with a laptop and I can see even nicer models on the horizon should I decide to get into video photography. I had a blast on vacation with a 4MP digital camera and a 350MHz laptop. I get up early and it gave me fun stuff to do while family members slept and I was able to burn three CDs for the family filled with photos from the trip. On the way home, I saw someone on the plane with a top end notebook doing video editing right on the plane. I hear the new centrinos with the Mobild Pentium chips allows folks to do 4 to 6 hrs of this video editing on a battery... I could see one of those if I were to retire and get into taking many vacations. Kirk